Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Global Liquidity</strong> seeing significant collapse and World Central Bank Liquidity slated to contract by 10-20% over 2 years</li>
<li>
<strong> US Dollar</strong> set to make further gains.  US dollar swap-lines become important</li>
<li>
<strong> World commodity prices</strong> to skid lower as World economy hits recession</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity seeing significant collapse and World Central Bank Liquidity slated to contract by 10-20% over 2 years

 US Dollar set to make further gains.  US dollar swap-lines become important

 World commodity prices to skid lower as World economy hits recession


Alert: Do Bears Hunt in Packs? (Part 3) The Coming Turmoil in Currency and Commodity Markets

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>USD met rally targets across the board versus majors and in Asia. DXY is at a key crossroad with 104 and 102 pivotal break points that will define direction.</li>
<li>Sequence favors a dip (DXY 102 pivot) and re test of the 103+ zone with 104 the bigger break level. Weak below 102 (short signal).</li>
<li>DXY weekly cycle kissing major triple high zone and a key crossroad.</li>
</ul>


USD met rally targets across the board versus majors and in Asia. DXY is at a key crossroad with 104 and 102 pivotal break points that will define direction.
Sequence favors a dip (DXY 102 pivot) and re test of the 103+ zone with 104 the bigger break level. Weak below 102 (short signal).
DXY weekly cycle kissing major triple high zone and a key crossroad.


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>As the US dollar approaches its highest level in a decade in line with my expectation, I reiterate my view of the dollar remaining strong in the near term.</li>
<li>The dollar spike coincides with the rise in US rates volatility, which makes sense as the market is trapped between Fed tightening and risk aversion arising from rising recession probability.</li>
<li>As the year progresses, I expect the dollar to weaken and the environment to turn supportive of EM currencies. Until then, I recommend relative-value trades and hedging with the euro.</li>
</ul>


As the US dollar approaches its highest level in a decade in line with my expectation, I reiterate my view of the dollar remaining strong in the near term.
The dollar spike coincides with the rise in US rates volatility, which makes sense as the market is trapped between Fed tightening and risk aversion arising from rising recession probability.
As the year progresses, I expect the dollar to weaken and the environment to turn supportive of EM currencies. Until then, I recommend relative-value trades and hedging with the euro.


Revisiting the US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For this Webinar, we have the pleasure of welcoming back Analyst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gautam-jain-phd-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:16876" rel="noopener">Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA</a> to discuss his take on the US dollar and its implications for EM currencies. Gautam will outline his broad view, the reasons behind it, how it has played out, and what to expect going forward in 2022.</p>
<h3>The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 27 April 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
<p>Subscribe to our podcast feed to listen on the go:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/62rKS5ORwBTQCZM9zclEdT?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="232" style="border-radius: 12px;" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture"></iframe></p>
<p>Gautam Jain has over 20 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specialises in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. He holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.</p>

For this Webinar, we have the pleasure of welcoming back Analyst Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA to discuss his take on the US dollar and its implications for EM currencies. Gautam will outline his broad view, the reasons behind it, how it has played out, and what to expect going forward in 2022.
The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 27 April 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.
Subscribe to our podcast feed to listen on the go:

Gautam Jain has over 20 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specialises in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. He holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Smartkarma Webinar | 2022 High-Conviction Ideas on Emerging Markets FX

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.</li>
<li>As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.
As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.
We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Alert: Do Bears Hunt in Packs? (Part 3) The Coming Turmoil in Currency and Commodity Markets

Part 3 of an explanation of the effects of much tighter Global Liquidity. The US dollar is headed higher and sky-high World commodity prices are...

Michael J. Howell

DXY Above 104 Would Be a Game Changer

USD met rally targets across the board versus majors and in Asia. DXY is at a key crossroad with 104 and 102 pivotal break points that will define...

Thomas Schroeder

Revisiting the US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

As the US dollar approaches its highest level in a decade, I reiterate my view of the dollar remaining strong in the near term. As the year...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Smartkarma Webinar | 2022 High-Conviction Ideas on Emerging Markets FX

On 27 April, 5pm SGT, join our webinar with Analyst Gautam Jain, who will outline his view on the US dollar and its implications for EM currencies.

Smartkarma Research

Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

Several indexes remain below key resistance, including 4600 on $SPX, $110 on $QQEW, $209 on $IWM, $111 on $IJR, $507 on the $SOX index $SOXX, $73...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)