External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The market appears to be pricing in a more contained crisis in regards of geopolitical risk escalation, but volatility risk remains high at this stage.</li><li>The recent surge in yields is seen as an indication of tighter financial conditions, aiding the Fed to achieve its objectives, and hence, greater expectations of a Pause.</li><li>China’s slowdown could trim Indonesia’s GDP growth by 0.2 ppt in 2024. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The market appears to be pricing in a more contained crisis in regards of geopolitical risk escalation, but volatility risk remains high at this stage.The recent surge in yields is seen as an indication of tighter financial conditions, aiding the Fed to achieve its objectives, and hence, greater expectations of a Pause.China’s slowdown could trim Indonesia’s GDP growth by 0.2 ppt in 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Ever Vigilant

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.</li><li>Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.</li><li>European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

<ul><li>The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure foreign inflows.</li><li>The secondary market features of the SRBI will serve as a liquidity source for banks, with increasing expectations that BI may intervene directly in the forex market.</li><li>The probability of a Fed pause remains high, although the "higher for longer" narrative will prevail.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure foreign inflows.The secondary market features of the SRBI will serve as a liquidity source for banks, with increasing expectations that BI may intervene directly in the forex market.The probability of a Fed pause remains high, although the "higher for longer" narrative will prevail.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Policy Rate in Focus

<ul><li>The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.</li><li>While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.</li><li>This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

Credit

<ul>
<li>Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed to implement additional interest rate hikes to cool still-too-high inflation.</li>
<li>The PCE inflation rate in June 2023 was 2.97% y-y, down from 3.8% y-y in June 2022.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation rate as the key indicator decreased to 4.1% y-y from June’s of 4.6% y-y with consensus of 4.2% y-y in July. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed to implement additional interest rate hikes to cool still-too-high inflation.
The PCE inflation rate in June 2023 was 2.97% y-y, down from 3.8% y-y in June 2022.
Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation rate as the key indicator decreased to 4.1% y-y from June’s of 4.6% y-y with consensus of 4.2% y-y in July. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 29, 2023

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Ever Vigilant

The market appears to be pricing in a more contained crisis in regards of geopolitical risk escalation, but volatility risk remains high at this...

BRI Danareksa Research

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.

Scotiabank

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Policy Rate in Focus

The launch of the SRBI has attracted IDR24.5tn, with the majority on a 12-month term at 6.40%, slightly higher than the INDOGB 1-year yield to lure...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 29, 2023

Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed...

BRI Danareksa Research

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P/E

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