Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

As the market volatility picks up again, we revisit our analysis where we compared the current reflationary episode with the Taper Tantrum of 2013.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

As the market volatility picks up again, we revisit our analysis where we compared the current reflationary episode with the Taper Tantrum of 2013.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Revisiting Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all rallied to logical resistance; if they are able to break above and stay above their respective resistance levels it would signal the end of the current consolidation phase. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials:

The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all rallied to logical resistance; if they are able to break above and stay above their respective resistance levels it would signal the end of the current consolidation phase. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials:

U.S. Equity Strategy: Testing Key Resistance; Downgrading Health Care

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

In this note, we use an innovative approach to detect which emerging countries are intervening more than others.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we use an innovative approach to detect which emerging countries are intervening more than others.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Which Countries Are Intervening the Most?

In this note, we discuss the underperformance of the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Colombian peso (COP) relative to the rally in oil prices.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we discuss the underperformance of the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Colombian peso (COP) relative to the rally in oil prices.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Revisiting Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare

In this note, we revisit our analysis of the current reflationary episode vs the 2013 Taper Tantrum. Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Testing Key Resistance; Downgrading Health Care

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all rallied to logical resistance; a break above their respective resistance levels...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

FX Dashboard: Which Countries Are Intervening the Most?

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we use an innovative approach to detect...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Oil Currencies Vs Oil

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we discuss the underperformance of Russian...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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