Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan’s chemicals industry is finally undergoing a long-overdue consolidation that should lead to fewer companies, higher profitability, and less volatility.</li>
<li>These changes may be driving significant mispricing. Like most segments, RoE drives most of the variance in PBR, but with more frequent and far larger outliers.</li>
<li>KH Neochem, Daicel, and Mitsui Chemicals are the undervalued outliers, and all three are positioned for rapid growth in our view.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s chemicals industry is finally undergoing a long-overdue consolidation that should lead to fewer companies, higher profitability, and less volatility.
These changes may be driving significant mispricing. Like most segments, RoE drives most of the variance in PBR, but with more frequent and far larger outliers.
KH Neochem, Daicel, and Mitsui Chemicals are the undervalued outliers, and all three are positioned for rapid growth in our view.


Long-Overdue Consolidation in Japanese Chemicals Drives Growth & Mispricing

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Index Rebalance

<ul><li>Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, Shift Inc (3697 JP) Consumer Goods, Pan Pacific International (7532.T) Consumer Goods</li><li>Rebalancing Candidates DEL: Okuma Corp (6103 JP): Low Liquidity Group &lt; 450, Kanadevia Corp. (7004.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)</li><li>Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s NKY weight is currently 9.65% below 10% weight cap threshold.</li></ul>

Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, Shift Inc (3697 JP) Consumer Goods, Pan Pacific International (7532.T) Consumer GoodsRebalancing Candidates DEL: Okuma Corp (6103 JP): Low Liquidity Group &lt; 450, Kanadevia Corp. (7004.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s NKY weight is currently 9.65% below 10% weight cap threshold.

Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – June 2025

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.</li>
<li>Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.</li>
<li>Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.
Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.
Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.


Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ps Mitsubishi Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Partial Offer launched last month by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> to take a 50.2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> ends at the beginning of next week.</li>
<li>This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. </li>
<li>Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.</li>
</ul>


The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

<ul>
<li>Last week, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> reported earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.</li>
<li>Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.</li>
<li>Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. </li>
</ul>


Last week, as Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) reported earnings, Taisei Corp (1801 JP) announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.
Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.
Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. 


Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

Japan

Ube Industries, Ltd. produces and sells chemical products such as nylon resins, plastics and synthetic rubbers, fine chemicals, and pharmaceutical bulk compounds and intermediates. The Company also manufactures cement, construction materials, and machineries.

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Ube Industries (4208 JP)

Long-Overdue Consolidation in Japanese Chemicals Drives Growth & Mispricing

Consolidation in Japan's chemicals industry leading to fewer companies, higher profitability, and potential for growth in undervalued outliers...

Michael Allen

Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – June 2025

Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, Shift Inc (3697 JP) Consumer Goods, Pan Pacific International...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

TXN's lower capex and weak demand as slight negative for SPE and analog/power companies; Keysight's strong earnings and guidance is positive for...

Andrew Jackson

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

GC Taisei Corp announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi to go to 50.2%. Ube and Taiheiyo Cement will sell. Partial Offers have traded badly on...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Long-Overdue Consolidation in Japanese Chemicals Drives Growth & Mispricing

​Consolidation in Japan's chemicals industry leading to fewer companies, higher profitability, and potential for growth in undervalued outliers...

Michael Allen

Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – June 2025

Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, Shift Inc (3697 JP) Consumer Goods, Pan Pacific International...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

TXN's lower capex and weak demand as slight negative for SPE and analog/power companies; Keysight's strong earnings and guidance is positive for...

Andrew Jackson

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

GC Taisei Corp announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi to go to 50.2%. Ube and Taiheiyo Cement will sell. Partial Offers have traded badly on...

Travis Lundy

Consolidation in Japan's chemicals industry leading to fewer companies, higher profitability, and potential for growth in undervalued outliers...