Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Stronger-Than-Expected Q1 GDP and resilient exports suggest Japan’s recovery remains intact despite global headwinds.</li>
<li>AI-driven semiconductor demand and trade diversion from US tariffs are supporting a sustained export upswing.</li>
<li>Japan’s earnings season highlighted resilient profit growth, AI- and export-driven strength, and improving shareholder returns, supporting a constructive outlook for Japanese equities despite rising global cost and energy pressures</li>
</ul>


Stronger-Than-Expected Q1 GDP and resilient exports suggest Japan’s recovery remains intact despite global headwinds.
AI-driven semiconductor demand and trade diversion from US tariffs are supporting a sustained export upswing.
Japan’s earnings season highlighted resilient profit growth, AI- and export-driven strength, and improving shareholder returns, supporting a constructive outlook for Japanese equities despite rising global cost and energy pressures


Japan Weekly Strategy | Stocks Defy Global Headwinds

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The US president postponed the attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, although Iran stated that there had been no negotiations with the US.</li><li>The index rebounded from support at 1,400, reinforcing the 1,400–1,386 support zone.</li><li>We recommend buying on weakness, as the index is likely to remain volatile while Middle East developments continue to influence market movements.</li></ul>

The US president postponed the attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, although Iran stated that there had been no negotiations with the US.The index rebounded from support at 1,400, reinforcing the 1,400–1,386 support zone.We recommend buying on weakness, as the index is likely to remain volatile while Middle East developments continue to influence market movements.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 25, 2026

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. </li>
<li>The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete <em>feels</em> problematic.</li>
<li>Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. 
The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.
Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.</li>
<li>Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.</li>
<li>Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.
Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.
Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.


Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

<ul>
<li>Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-mar26-rebal-2-adds-3rd-poss-2-dels-1-cap-another-close" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final expectations insight</a>, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.</li>
<li>Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.</li>
<li>Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our final expectations insight, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.
Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.
Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for Toyota Industries (6201 JP).


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

Japan

Ube Industries, Ltd. produces and sells chemical products such as nylon resins, plastics and synthetic rubbers, fine chemicals, and pharmaceutical bulk compounds and intermediates. The Company also manufactures cement, construction materials, and machineries.

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Ube Industries (4208 JP)

Japan Weekly Strategy | Stocks Defy Global Headwinds

Japan's economy shows strength with strong Q1 GDP, resilient exports, and positive earnings season, despite global challenges.

Mark Chadwick

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 25, 2026

The US president postponed the attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, although Iran stated that there had been no negotiations with...

Krungthai XSpring

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

The Nikkei 225 data period is 95% complete. It looks like two auto ADDs and one auto DELETE. They could add Capcom as a sector add and the question...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

TXN's lower capex and weak demand as slight negative for SPE and analog/power companies; Keysight's strong earnings and guidance is positive for...

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

A preview of teh Sep 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal assuming changes are as expected for the Mar26 rebal suggests 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs and $4bn of Advantest...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Weekly Strategy | Stocks Defy Global Headwinds

​Japan's economy shows strength with strong Q1 GDP, resilient exports, and positive earnings season, despite global challenges.

Mark Chadwick

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 25, 2026

The US president postponed the attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, although Iran stated that there had been no negotiations with...

Krungthai XSpring

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

The Nikkei 225 data period is 95% complete. It looks like two auto ADDs and one auto DELETE. They could add Capcom as a sector add and the question...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

TXN's lower capex and weak demand as slight negative for SPE and analog/power companies; Keysight's strong earnings and guidance is positive for...

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

A preview of teh Sep 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal assuming changes are as expected for the Mar26 rebal suggests 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs and $4bn of Advantest...

Travis Lundy

Japan's economy shows strength with strong Q1 GDP, resilient exports, and positive earnings season, despite global challenges.