Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ps Mitsubishi Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Partial Offer launched last month by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> to take a 50.2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> ends at the beginning of next week.</li>
<li>This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. </li>
<li>Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.</li>
</ul>


The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

<ul>
<li>Last week, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> reported earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.</li>
<li>Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.</li>
<li>Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. </li>
</ul>


Last week, as Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) reported earnings, Taisei Corp (1801 JP) announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.
Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.
Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. 


Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/809/original/2019-08-04_13-24-01.png?1564892655" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SOUTHBOUND</strong> - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings is still heading lower. Since July 22nd, 1,216 or 32% of companies have reported results and 292 forecast revisions have been announced. The Japan Analytics Results &amp; Revision Score reached a new 28-month low on Friday of 1.43, a decline of 78% from the current cycle peak of 6.50 on 16th November 2017. The correlation between the Score and the Market Capitalisation of listed companies excluding REITs is 0.77, and the Score is more of a leading or co-incident than lagging indicator.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/810/original/2019-08-04_13-32-15.png?1564893149" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94810"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/812/original/2019-08-04_13-39-03.png?1564893556" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94812"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>BREAKDOWN</strong> - The Results &amp; Revision Score is a weighted sum of three components, the Results Score, the Annual Forecast/Revision Score and the Interim Forecast/Revision Score, with the last of these only being applicable for nine months of each year. The two Forecast/Revision Scores are, as would be expected., leading indicators for the Results Score. The current quarter's Results Scor decline already exceeds the previous quarter's more-benign decline which also saw an increase in the Annual Forecast/Revision Score as the majority of companies 'rolled' their forecast ahead by one year. In contrast, the forecasts for the Interim period which for most companies ends next month were the most pessimistic since April 2016 and the mostly first-quarter results are confirming the early caution. In addition, full-year forecasts are also being downgraded and are at the lowest level for three months.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/816/original/2019-08-04_13-44-46.png?1564893904" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>YEN DRIVER</strong> - The key driver of the Results &amp; Revision Score has been the year-on-year change in the US dollar/Yen exchange rate lagged by six months. The major turning points in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22826" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22826:1" rel="noopener">JUSDJPY CURNCY</a> over the last twelve years highlighted above line up well with changes in the direction of earnings momentum as represented by the Results &amp; Revision Score. With the Yen having reverted to a period of strengthening in recent weeks, the trend in the Score will be downwards over the next six months, which will be reflected in due course by the market.    </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we update our Market Composite Results Timeline, Sector and Peer Group Results &amp; Revision Scores, Sector Performance and Valuation and look at the best and worst large-cap individual company results over the last two weeks. In the meantime, we lighten the mood with a classic Allman Brother track featuring the incomparable Dicky Betts.</p></div><center></center><div class="content-caption">The Allman Brothers Band - Southbound - 1/16/1982 - University Of Florida Bandshell</div>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSOUTHBOUND - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings is still heading lower. Since July 22nd, 1,216 or 32% of companies have reported results and 292 forecast revisions have been announced. The Japan Analytics Results &amp; Revision Score reached a new 28-month low on Friday of 1.43, a decline of 78% from the current cycle peak of 6.50 on 16th November 2017. The correlation between the Score and the Market Capitalisation of listed companies excluding REITs is 0.77, and the Score is more of a leading or co-incident than lagging indicator.Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKDOWN - The Results &amp; Revision Score is a weighted sum of three components, the Results Score, the Annual Forecast/Revision Score and the Interim Forecast/Revision Score, with the last of these only being applicable for nine months of each year. The two Forecast/Revision Scores are, as would be expected., leading indicators for the Results Score. The current quarter's Results Scor decline already exceeds the previous quarter's more-benign decline which also saw an increase in the Annual Forecast/Revision Score as the majority of companies 'rolled' their forecast ahead by one year. In contrast, the forecasts for the Interim period which for most companies ends next month were the most pessimistic since April 2016 and the mostly first-quarter results are confirming the early caution. In addition, full-year forecasts are also being downgraded and are at the lowest level for three months.Source: Japan AnalyticsYEN DRIVER - The key driver of the Results &amp; Revision Score has been the year-on-year change in the US dollar/Yen exchange rate lagged by six months. The major turning points in JUSDJPY CURNCY over the last twelve years highlighted above line up well with changes in the direction of earnings momentum as represented by the Results &amp; Revision Score. With the Yen having reverted to a period of strengthening in recent weeks, the trend in the Score will be downwards over the next six months, which will be reflected in due course by the market.    In the DETAIL section below, we update our Market Composite Results Timeline, Sector and Peer Group Results &amp; Revision Scores, Sector Performance and Valuation and look at the best and worst large-cap individual company results over the last two weeks. In the meantime, we lighten the mood with a classic Allman Brother track featuring the incomparable Dicky Betts.The Allman Brothers Band - Southbound - 1/16/1982 - University Of Florida Bandshell

🇯🇵 Japan • Summer Results & Revisions First Cut - Southbound

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Toray's share price has been weak ever since it announced FY16 results on May 10th, despite both results and FY17 outlook being largely in line with consensus estimates. </p><p>This was due to the poor performance of the company's Carbon Fiber division, which made up nearly a quarter of Toray's operating profit (OP) in FY15 but fell by 34% YoY in FY16--its first ever decline. </p><p>Over half of Toray's Carbon Fiber sales come from Boeing, mainly its 787 Dreamliner. This relatively pricey plane uses 35 tons of Toray's carbon fiber, which allows it to have superior mileage and longer-range flights. This made the 787 extremely attractive when the oil price was high.</p><p>Orders of the 787 have stalled recently due to increased competition and, according to Toray, the lower oil price. While Boeing had guided suppliers to be ready for monthly production of 12 units to grow to 14, possibly by 2018, this quickly changed last year as orders for the 787 began to dry up. Toray had unfortunately already ramped up capacity for 14.</p><p>Toray's OP has not actually grown in USD-terms over the past five years (FY16 OP in USD was -0.6% versus FY11), but without the Carbon Fiber division, Toray's OP would've been down by 11% in USD terms.</p><p>Toray's stock is therefore driven by 787 output (see Charts-1 &amp;-2) and here lies the biggest disconnect: <em><strong>most Japanese sellside analysts see 787 production recovering from the 2H of FY17, and have Toray's Carbon Fiber Division OP growing for every year thereafter. Wall Street analysts who cover Boeing, however, are negative on Boeing's 787 orders (most expect Boeing's gross margins to improve as 787 sales decline and 737 sales increase), with most not seeing an increase to 14 per month until after 2020, with price cuts highly likely along the way.</strong></em></p><p>Because of the sudden fall in Toray's carbon fiber OP last year and the uncertain outlook ahead, Toray's PER has fallen to only 14.8x versus a 5-year average of 18x (and the average low for each year being 14.9x), while the EV/EBITDA is down to 7.6x versus the 5-year average of 8.8x (average low of 7.7x).</p><p>Low valuations should be taken with a bag of salt. Sellside analysts in Japan have lofty estimates for Toray's carbon fiber ops in FY17, much higher than the company's targets, which are highly optimistic themselves. This could be cause for a disappointment along the way.</p>

Toray's share price has been weak ever since it announced FY16 results on May 10th, despite both results and FY17 outlook being largely in line with consensus estimates. This was due to the poor performance of the company's Carbon Fiber division, which made up nearly a quarter of Toray's operating profit (OP) in FY15 but fell by 34% YoY in FY16--its first ever decline. Over half of Toray's Carbon Fiber sales come from Boeing, mainly its 787 Dreamliner. This relatively pricey plane uses 35 tons of Toray's carbon fiber, which allows it to have superior mileage and longer-range flights. This made the 787 extremely attractive when the oil price was high.Orders of the 787 have stalled recently due to increased competition and, according to Toray, the lower oil price. While Boeing had guided suppliers to be ready for monthly production of 12 units to grow to 14, possibly by 2018, this quickly changed last year as orders for the 787 began to dry up. Toray had unfortunately already ramped up capacity for 14.Toray's OP has not actually grown in USD-terms over the past five years (FY16 OP in USD was -0.6% versus FY11), but without the Carbon Fiber division, Toray's OP would've been down by 11% in USD terms.Toray's stock is therefore driven by 787 output (see Charts-1 &amp;-2) and here lies the biggest disconnect: most Japanese sellside analysts see 787 production recovering from the 2H of FY17, and have Toray's Carbon Fiber Division OP growing for every year thereafter. Wall Street analysts who cover Boeing, however, are negative on Boeing's 787 orders (most expect Boeing's gross margins to improve as 787 sales decline and 737 sales increase), with most not seeing an increase to 14 per month until after 2020, with price cuts highly likely along the way.Because of the sudden fall in Toray's carbon fiber OP last year and the uncertain outlook ahead, Toray's PER has fallen to only 14.8x versus a 5-year average of 18x (and the average low for each year being 14.9x), while the EV/EBITDA is down to 7.6x versus the 5-year average of 8.8x (average low of 7.7x).Low valuations should be taken with a bag of salt. Sellside analysts in Japan have lofty estimates for Toray's carbon fiber ops in FY17, much higher than the company's targets, which are highly optimistic themselves. This could be cause for a disappointment along the way.

Japan

Ube Industries, Ltd. produces and sells chemical products such as nylon resins, plastics and synthetic rubbers, fine chemicals, and pharmaceutical bulk compounds and intermediates. The Company also manufactures cement, construction materials, and machineries.

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Ube Industries (4208 JP)

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

GC Taisei Corp announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi to go to 50.2%. Ube and Taiheiyo Cement will sell. Partial Offers have traded badly on...

Travis Lundy

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 Japan • Summer Results & Revisions First Cut - Southbound

SOUTHBOUND - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings...

Campbell Gunn

Toray--Not a Buy Despite Low Valuations

Toray's share price has been weak ever since it announced FY16 results on May 10th, despite both results and FY17 outlook being largely in line...

SC Capital

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