'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/948/original/2020-11-08_12-52-02.png?1604807697" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169948"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>AUTOS ▲</strong> - Positive results and full-year upward revisions from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP)</a> have confirmed that Japan's overall revenue and earnings momentum has bottomed and is now in an uptrend.  Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> has yet to report, the auto assembler Peer Group's Forecast/Revision Score is at a five-year high following its largest-ever single-quarter increase. </p></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/950/original/2020-11-08_13-11-05.png?1604808678" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169950"></figure></section><p><strong>MARKET ▲</strong> - Since bottoming in mid-September, the  Results Score has gained 147 basis points, and the Forecast/Revision Score has rallied 509 bps. Total Market Value ex REITs has rallied to a new post-COVID high of ¥661 trillion but remains 12.6% below the 2017 peak. In TOPIX terms, the 'gap to peak' is 15.3%.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/951/original/2020-11-08_14-37-14.png?1604813847" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169951"></figure></section><p><strong>SECTORS</strong> -  The <strong>Auto</strong> Sector joins the <strong>Machinery</strong>,<strong> Electrical Equipment</strong> Sectors as the top-three gainers. Only six Sectors have seen a decline in Score, led by <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Information Technology</strong> and<strong> Non-Bank Finance</strong>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/952/original/2020-11-08_14-45-33.png?1604814353" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169952"></figure></section><p><strong>MULTIPLES</strong> - The uptick in forecast all0market Net Income has capped the market's forward multiple at 34 times and reduced the 'gap' to trailing earnings to ¥1.3 trillion.  </p>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div>
<div><p>Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Friday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a> </p></div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/953/original/2020-11-08_14-54-54.png?1604814911" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169953"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/954/original/2020-11-08_15-05-04.png?1604815536" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169954"></figure></section><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<div><p>Results are evenly split between positive and neutral; however, TTM revenues are still falling by 3%, and operating margins are on average 1.6 points lower. 50% of annual revisions are negative, but the average change in score has improved to a decline of 1.4 points.</p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>377 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 41% Positive / 8% Neutral / 51% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.1% Quarter YoY / -3.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.6ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 21%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>167 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 40% Positive / 10% Neutral / 50% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 68% Positive / 9% Neutral / 23% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.4 points</p></li>
</ul></div></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsAUTOS ▲ - Positive results and full-year upward revisions from Toyota (7203 JP) and Honda (7267 JP) have confirmed that Japan's overall revenue and earnings momentum has bottomed and is now in an uptrend.  Although Nissan (7201 JP) has yet to report, the auto assembler Peer Group's Forecast/Revision Score is at a five-year high following its largest-ever single-quarter increase. MARKET ▲ - Since bottoming in mid-September, the  Results Score has gained 147 basis points, and the Forecast/Revision Score has rallied 509 bps. Total Market Value ex REITs has rallied to a new post-COVID high of ¥661 trillion but remains 12.6% below the 2017 peak. In TOPIX terms, the 'gap to peak' is 15.3%.
SECTORS -  The Auto Sector joins the Machinery, Electrical Equipment Sectors as the top-three gainers. Only six Sectors have seen a decline in Score, led by Other Commercial Products, Information Technology and Non-Bank Finance.
MULTIPLES - The uptick in forecast all0market Net Income has capped the market's forward multiple at 34 times and reduced the 'gap' to trailing earnings to ¥1.3 trillion.  
• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Friday's announcements is Honda (7267 JP) and Square Enix (9684 JP) 


DAILY STATS

Results are evenly split between positive and neutral; however, TTM revenues are still falling by 3%, and operating margins are on average 1.6 points lower. 50% of annual revisions are negative, but the average change in score has improved to a decline of 1.4 points.

377 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 41% Positive / 8% Neutral / 51% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.1% Quarter YoY / -3.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.6ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 21%


167 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 40% Positive / 10% Neutral / 50% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 68% Positive / 9% Neutral / 23% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.4 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/06 - Autos Lead the Way

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/118/original/2020-10-03_15-34-01.png?1601706874" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163118"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>WARMING UP</strong> - Earnings momentum is finally on the 'up'. Our Interim Forecast/Revision Score data series which runs from March to September finished 2020 on a two-month high, while both the Annual series are above their September low points. The divergence between domestic non-manufacturing and globally-orientated manufacturing companies continues to widen exemplified by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>'s announcement of their decision to pull out of Formula 1 from the end of the 2021 season. Although trailing earnings have also stabilised, operating and net income forecasts and their 'gap to trailing' continue to increase. The forward multiple is 32.5 times. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/261/original/2020-10-04_07-12-52.png?1601763187" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163261"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
</div><div><p>Our best and worst pair is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu (8184 JP)</a> for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper machinery maker and small-cap value investor favourite and Unicharm proxy<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zuiko-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5568:1" rel="noopener"> Zuiko (6279 JP)</a>. </p></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/135/original/2020-10-03_17-07-27.png?1601712488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163135"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/136/original/2020-10-03_17-08-41.png?1601712545" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163136"></figure><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>18 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 56% Positive / 11% Neutral / 33% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> 0.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.6% Quarter YoY / -5.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.6ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>9 Annual • 6 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 33% Positive /22% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 50% Positive / 17% Neutral / 33% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>


Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
WARMING UP - Earnings momentum is finally on the 'up'. Our Interim Forecast/Revision Score data series which runs from March to September finished 2020 on a two-month high, while both the Annual series are above their September low points. The divergence between domestic non-manufacturing and globally-orientated manufacturing companies continues to widen exemplified by Honda Motor (7267 JP)'s announcement of their decision to pull out of Formula 1 from the end of the 2021 season. Although trailing earnings have also stabilised, operating and net income forecasts and their 'gap to trailing' continue to increase. The forward multiple is 32.5 times. 
• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pair is home centre Shimachu (8184 JP) for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper machinery maker and small-cap value investor favourite and Unicharm proxy Zuiko (6279 JP). DAILY STATS18 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 56% Positive / 11% Neutral / 33% Negative
Average Results Score Change: 0.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.6% Quarter YoY / -5.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.6ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
9 Annual • 6 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive /22% Neutral / 44% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 17% Neutral / 33% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.1 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicharm-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6246:1" rel="noopener">Unicharm Corp (8113 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1" rel="noopener">Lion Corp (4912 JP)</a> are three closely related companies in the Japanese household products market. Although their core competencies are somewhat different, all three of them specialises in health and hygiene related household products.</p>
<p>The correlation of the share price movement of these three companies over the years were very tight. However, Pigeon’s and Lion’s share prices have moved in opposite directions for some time since 30<sup>th</sup> July 2020, which is contrary to the directions of the guidance revisions during that time.</p>
<p>This divergence in share price performance has created an opportunity for a long short pair trade between Lion and Pigeon. We discuss the details below.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/054/original/1.png?1599657390" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158054"></figure>

Unicharm Corp (8113 JP), Pigeon Corp (7956 JP) and Lion Corp (4912 JP) are three closely related companies in the Japanese household products market. Although their core competencies are somewhat different, all three of them specialises in health and hygiene related household products.
The correlation of the share price movement of these three companies over the years were very tight. However, Pigeon’s and Lion’s share prices have moved in opposite directions for some time since 30th July 2020, which is contrary to the directions of the guidance revisions during that time.
This divergence in share price performance has created an opportunity for a long short pair trade between Lion and Pigeon. We discuss the details below.


Japanese Household Goods Pair Trade: Let The Lion Pounce As The Pigeon Lands

<div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><em>"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." - Warren Buffett </em></strong></p></div><p>Enterprise Value multiples have become common parlance in the investment world, both <strong>Enterprise Value/Operating Profit</strong> (EV/OP or EV/EBIT) and it's flawed 'bastard' cousin EV/EBITDA which we will leave well alone for this Insight. With markets supported on a cloud of central bank's liquidity and corporate trailing earnings distorted by COVID-19, many valuation ratios appear meaningless. To inject a dose of reality into the analysis of Japanese corporate valuations, we have created a new metric -<strong> Enterprise Value/Peak Operating Profit (EV/POP).</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/071/original/2020-08-26_10-36-07.png?1598405812" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155071"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics (applies to all charts below)</div><p><strong>EV &amp; OP TIMELINE</strong> - Using currently-listed non-financial companies (with the four exceptions noted in the legend above), the correlation between Enterprise Value (here divided by 10) and Operating Income has increased since 2013. However, the current positive EV&lt;&gt;OP 'spread' is now larger than at any time since 2002. While non-financial Operating Profits have declined by 22% since peaking in the first quarter of FY2019, Enterprise Value is just ¥2.9 trillion, or 5% below its <a href="mailto:FY18-@Q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY18-</a>2Q peak level. Where the lines converge, the EV/OP multiple is 10 times, which is close to the sixteen-year average and the arbitrary line we shall use to distinguish the overvalued from the undervalued. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/075/original/2020-08-26_10-56-07.png?1598406979" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155075"></figure><p><strong>EV/OP &amp; EV/POP</strong> - Aggregate EV/OP is now 11.6 times, breaking out of a narrow range to reach a  new a ten-year high. EV/POP reached a five-year low in March of 7.9 times but is now 20 basis points above the seven-year average of 8.8 times. By neither measure could the market be considered cheap; however, in EV/POP terms, aggregate valuations are only just above average.  For several favoured companies for which the market is prepared to pay any price for their perceived quality EV/POP multiple are far from average as in the examples below. At the other end of the valuation spectrum, EV/POP reveals some clear bargain-hunting opportunities.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/100/original/2020-08-26_13-12-11.png?1598415140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155100"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/102/original/2020-08-26_13-12-39.png?1598415169" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155102"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/104/original/2020-08-26_13-15-58.png?1598415375" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155104"></figure><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section, we look at the non-financial companies at more examples from both extremes of this metric, in an attempt to pick potential winners and losers as the world slowly normalises and liquidity begins to ebb.  We have purposely excluded companies with negative Enterprise Values, which we shall cover in a upcoming Insight. We have also excluded companies that have listed only in the last four years.</p>

"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." - Warren Buffett Enterprise Value multiples have become common parlance in the investment world, both Enterprise Value/Operating Profit (EV/OP or EV/EBIT) and it's flawed 'bastard' cousin EV/EBITDA which we will leave well alone for this Insight. With markets supported on a cloud of central bank's liquidity and corporate trailing earnings distorted by COVID-19, many valuation ratios appear meaningless. To inject a dose of reality into the analysis of Japanese corporate valuations, we have created a new metric - Enterprise Value/Peak Operating Profit (EV/POP).Source: Japan Analytics (applies to all charts below)EV &amp; OP TIMELINE - Using currently-listed non-financial companies (with the four exceptions noted in the legend above), the correlation between Enterprise Value (here divided by 10) and Operating Income has increased since 2013. However, the current positive EV&lt;&gt;OP 'spread' is now larger than at any time since 2002. While non-financial Operating Profits have declined by 22% since peaking in the first quarter of FY2019, Enterprise Value is just ¥2.9 trillion, or 5% below its FY18-2Q peak level. Where the lines converge, the EV/OP multiple is 10 times, which is close to the sixteen-year average and the arbitrary line we shall use to distinguish the overvalued from the undervalued. EV/OP &amp; EV/POP - Aggregate EV/OP is now 11.6 times, breaking out of a narrow range to reach a  new a ten-year high. EV/POP reached a five-year low in March of 7.9 times but is now 20 basis points above the seven-year average of 8.8 times. By neither measure could the market be considered cheap; however, in EV/POP terms, aggregate valuations are only just above average.  For several favoured companies for which the market is prepared to pay any price for their perceived quality EV/POP multiple are far from average as in the examples below. At the other end of the valuation spectrum, EV/POP reveals some clear bargain-hunting opportunities.In the DETAIL section, we look at the non-financial companies at more examples from both extremes of this metric, in an attempt to pick potential winners and losers as the world slowly normalises and liquidity begins to ebb.  We have purposely excluded companies with negative Enterprise Values, which we shall cover in a upcoming Insight. We have also excluded companies that have listed only in the last four years.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stock Picking with 'Peak' EV/OP Multiples - Introducing EV/POP

<p><strong>eRESULTS &amp; REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES</strong> - After a month's gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan's results, forecasts and revisions announcements as the 420 companies with February, May, August and November year-ends start to report. Initially, we shall cover all companies irrespective of market capitalisation, to highlight the financial impact of COVID-19  on specific Sectors and Peer Groups.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/142/848/original/2020-06-29_05-02-16.png?1593374573" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="142848"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>LEADING INDICATOR LEADS</strong> - The Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator of Business Conditions is suggesting that earnings and revisions (as represented above by our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Score) have some significant downside, perhaps closer to the low of 2009. The degree to which the market has already discounted the recovery of 2021 is moot; however, the current level of confidence is about to be put to the test, as was evident from Friday's announcements.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/142/853/original/2020-06-29_05-11-32.png?1593375116" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="142853"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Tokyo Metropolitan Government</div><p></p><p><strong>FAR FROM NORMAL</strong> - As a reminder that Tokyo's levels of social activity have yet to recover -passenger numbers on Toei subway lines are still 30% below January levels at peak office-worker commuting times.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/142/854/original/2020-06-29_05-17-39.png?1593375481" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="142854"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>GRAPHIC DETAIL</strong> - In an attempt to highlight absolute and relative company-specific trends, we have added some additional graphic material in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below. As always, comments and feedback are welcome.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>14 Quarterly Results</strong></p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 12 Negative / 2 Positive</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-5.0</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue: </strong>-16% Quarter YoY / -5% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.2ppt</li>
</ul><hr><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>7 Annual 6 Interim Forecasts Revisions</strong></p><ul>
<li>
<strong><strong>Forecast Revision Score:</strong></strong> 6 Positive / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.7</li>
</ul>

eRESULTS &amp; REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES - After a month's gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan's results, forecasts and revisions announcements as the 420 companies with February, May, August and November year-ends start to report. Initially, we shall cover all companies irrespective of market capitalisation, to highlight the financial impact of COVID-19  on specific Sectors and Peer Groups.Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR LEADS - The Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator of Business Conditions is suggesting that earnings and revisions (as represented above by our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Score) have some significant downside, perhaps closer to the low of 2009. The degree to which the market has already discounted the recovery of 2021 is moot; however, the current level of confidence is about to be put to the test, as was evident from Friday's announcements.Source • Tokyo Metropolitan GovernmentFAR FROM NORMAL - As a reminder that Tokyo's levels of social activity have yet to recover -passenger numbers on Toei subway lines are still 30% below January levels at peak office-worker commuting times.Source • Japan AnalyticsGRAPHIC DETAIL - In an attempt to highlight absolute and relative company-specific trends, we have added some additional graphic material in the DETAIL section below. As always, comments and feedback are welcome.DAILY STATS14 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 12 Negative / 2 Positive

Average Results Score Change:-5.0

Average % Change in Revenue: -16% Quarter YoY / -5% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.2ppt
7 Annual 6 Interim Forecasts Revisions

Forecast Revision Score: 6 Positive / 7 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th June

Japan

UNICHARM CORPORATION is a manufacturer of sanitary napkins and baby products. Products include infant & adult diapers, household cleaning wipes, and feminine hygienic products.  The Company also produces pet food and pet toiletries as well as operates educational and finance businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Unicharm Corp (8113 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/06 - Autos Lead the Way

Results are evenly split between positive and neutral; however, TTM revenues are still falling by 3%, and operating margins are on average 1.6...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon

• BEST & WORST • The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Household Goods Pair Trade: Let The Lion Pounce As The Pigeon Lands

Unicharm Corp (8113 JP) , Pigeon and Lion are three closely related companies in the Japanese household products market. Although their core...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stock Picking with 'Peak' EV/OP Multiples - Introducing EV/POP

"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." - Warren Buffett Enterprise Value multiples have become common parlance in the investment world, both...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th June

eRESULTS & REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES - After a month's gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan's results, forecasts and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/06 - Autos Lead the Way

Results are evenly split between positive and neutral; however, TTM revenues are still falling by 3%, and operating margins are on average 1.6...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon

• BEST & WORST • The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Household Goods Pair Trade: Let The Lion Pounce As The Pigeon Lands

Unicharm Corp (8113 JP) , Pigeon and Lion are three closely related companies in the Japanese household products market. Although their core...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stock Picking with 'Peak' EV/OP Multiples - Introducing EV/POP

"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." - Warren Buffett Enterprise Value multiples have become common parlance in the investment world, both...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th June

eRESULTS & REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES - After a month's gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan's results, forecasts and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/02 DCM (Under)Bids for Shimachu, Zuiko>Unicharm, Ktk>Canon