Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Just shy of three years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> announced the unification of its dual-headed corporate structure to make BHP "simpler and more agile".</li>
<li>Collapsing DLCs/share-classes was all the rage back then. The prior year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21141:1" rel="noopener">Unilever (UNA NA)</a> collapsed its DLC; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell </a> unified its A and B lines in 2021. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio (RIO AU/LN)</a> is one of only a handful of remaining DLCs. Renewed investor calls to unwind the DLC and the recent UK's listing regime reform necessitate a rethink.</li>
</ul>


Just shy of three years ago, BHP (BHP AU) announced the unification of its dual-headed corporate structure to make BHP "simpler and more agile".
Collapsing DLCs/share-classes was all the rage back then. The prior year, Unilever (UNA NA) collapsed its DLC; and Royal Dutch Shell  unified its A and B lines in 2021. 

Rio (RIO AU/LN) is one of only a handful of remaining DLCs. Renewed investor calls to unwind the DLC and the recent UK's listing regime reform necessitate a rethink.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The "Unification"

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global equity funds are heavily overweight in UK stock heading in to the election on July 4th.</li>
<li>Compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark, UK allocations are at a record overweight of +2.64%, with 69% of investors positioned ahead of the benchmark.</li>
<li>All sectors in the UK are held net overweight, led by Industrials and Consumer Staples. Key stocks like AstraZeneca, Linde, and Unilever are among the most widely held.</li>
</ul>


Global equity funds are heavily overweight in UK stock heading in to the election on July 4th.
Compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark, UK allocations are at a record overweight of +2.64%, with 69% of investors positioned ahead of the benchmark.
All sectors in the UK are held net overweight, led by Industrials and Consumer Staples. Key stocks like AstraZeneca, Linde, and Unilever are among the most widely held.


United Kingdom:  Record Overweights in Run Up to Election

Founder, CEO, GSBR Research

Garvit Bhandari

Founder, CEO

Leading Provider of Equity and Investment Research

GSBR Research

We are an independent equity research provider focused on covering global markets. The aim of the research is to provide an unbiased view of the fundamentals of the company.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Unilever announced plans to separate its ice cream business into a separate publicly listed company (SpinCo), potentially via a spin-off transaction.</li>
<li>Post separation, Unilever will focus on four core businesses: beauty and wellbeing, personal care, home care, and nutrition. The separation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.</li>
<li>The separation will allow Unilever to allocate capital and resources more efficiently towards higher growth categories with significant potential to scale.</li>
</ul>


Unilever announced plans to separate its ice cream business into a separate publicly listed company (SpinCo), potentially via a spin-off transaction.
Post separation, Unilever will focus on four core businesses: beauty and wellbeing, personal care, home care, and nutrition. The separation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.
The separation will allow Unilever to allocate capital and resources more efficiently towards higher growth categories with significant potential to scale.


Unilever (ULVR) To Separate Its Ice Cream Business

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenvue-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36755:1" rel="noopener">Kenvue (KVUE US)</a> reported 5% YoY revenue growth to $4B in 2Q23, driven by continued demand of self-care portfolio, mainly consisting of cough, cold, and allergy, and pain care products.</li>
<li>The company has guided for 4.5–5.5% revenue growth and EPS of $1.26–1.31 for 2023. Kenvue has declared a cash dividend of $0.20 for 3Q23.  </li>
<li>J&amp;J is offering its shareholders the option to exchange shares for Kenvue's at a 7% discount. The exchange offer is scheduled to close on August 18, 2023.</li>
</ul>



Kenvue (KVUE US) reported 5% YoY revenue growth to $4B in 2Q23, driven by continued demand of self-care portfolio, mainly consisting of cough, cold, and allergy, and pain care products.
The company has guided for 4.5–5.5% revenue growth and EPS of $1.26–1.31 for 2023. Kenvue has declared a cash dividend of $0.20 for 3Q23.  
J&amp;J is offering its shareholders the option to exchange shares for Kenvue's at a 7% discount. The exchange offer is scheduled to close on August 18, 2023.


Kenvue (KVUE US): Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Initiated 2023 Guidance; J&J Launches Exchange Offer

United Kingdom

Unilever PLC manufactures branded and packaged consumer goods, including food, detergents, fragrances, home and personal care products.  Dually-listed company with UNA NA.

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Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The "Unification"

At a time when the LSE has opted to dumb down the checks and balances for listed companies on its bourse, now may be just the right time to...

David Blennerhassett

United Kingdom: Record Overweights in Run Up to Election

Global equity fund managers are heading into the UK election with a significant overweight position compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark.

Steven Holden

Unilever (ULVR) To Separate Its Ice Cream Business

Unilever to spin off ice cream business into separate company by the end of 2025. The parent to focus on higher growth, higher margin businesses.

GSBR Research

Kenvue (KVUE US): Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Initiated 2023 Guidance; J&J Launches Exchange Offer

Kenvue beat Q2 sales and EPS estimates and guided for 4.5-5.5% sales growth for 2023. J&J is launching exchange offer for its holders to get ...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The "Unification"

At a time when the LSE has opted to dumb down the checks and balances for listed companies on its bourse, now may be just the right time to...

David Blennerhassett

United Kingdom: Record Overweights in Run Up to Election

Global equity fund managers are heading into the UK election with a significant overweight position compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark.

Steven Holden

Unilever (ULVR) To Separate Its Ice Cream Business

​Unilever to spin off ice cream business into separate company by the end of 2025. The parent to focus on higher growth, higher margin businesses.

GSBR Research

Kenvue (KVUE US): Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Initiated 2023 Guidance; J&J Launches Exchange Offer

Kenvue beat Q2 sales and EPS estimates and guided for 4.5-5.5% sales growth for 2023. J&J is launching exchange offer for its holders to get ...

Tina Banerjee

Unilever to spin off ice cream business into separate company by the end of 2025. The parent to focus on higher growth, higher margin businesses.