Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.</li>
</ul>


With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ</li>
<li>Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ</li>
<li>There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands</li>
</ul>


Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ
Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ
There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands


Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> </li>
<li>Net profit is nearly 50% lower for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> moved from a loss to the best profit on record </li>
<li>The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> is gently widening to 77%</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) 
Net profit is nearly 50% lower for Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) while Canara Bank (CBK IN) moved from a loss to the best profit on record 
The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; Canara Bank (CBK IN) is gently widening to 77%


India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Muthoot Microfin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muthoot-microfin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39950:1" rel="noopener">Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muthoot-microfin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39950:1" rel="noopener"> </a>raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.</li>
<li>Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN) raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.
Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry - Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance

India

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

There could be 7 changes for the Nifty Next 50. The addition of non-FnO stocks and deletion of FnO stocks raises index replication issues. Expect...

Brian Freitas

Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

Canara Bank continues to see improvements in credit metrics. Less focus on MSMEs and more on retail can support this. LDR contract QoQ may reverse...

Daniel Tabbush

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

There could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap150 Index in Sep. Apart from the passive trackers, there are huge active funds tracking the index....

Brian Freitas

India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

The Nifty Bank rebalancing that may see Bandhan Bank replaced by Canara Bank is a rebalancing that is also supported by divergent fundamentals, on...

Daniel Tabbush

Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry - Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance

Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN) raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.

Ethan Aw

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)