Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 17th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), United Energy (467 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), United Energy (467 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 17th): AIA, United Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That's six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.</li>
</ul>


This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That's six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.


Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) Banks, Real Estate, Telcos, and Big ETF Sales

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The AGM voting shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a> will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.</li>
<li>The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.
The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.
The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

<ul>
<li>The 27 April vote was adjourned as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> Board was notified by “<em>certain beneficial owners indicating that their latest voting instructions were not duly processed.</em>”</li>
<li>The meeting would not be adjourned if the YES vote was going to sail through. A delay helps the offeror as these owners will vote YES and deal fatigue sets in. </li>
<li>Risk-Reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This compares to the 13.5% upside from the offer. </li>
</ul>


The 27 April vote was adjourned as Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) Board was notified by “certain beneficial owners indicating that their latest voting instructions were not duly processed.”
The meeting would not be adjourned if the YES vote was going to sail through. A delay helps the offeror as these owners will vote YES and deal fatigue sets in. 
Risk-Reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This compares to the 13.5% upside from the offer. 


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Adjourned Scheme Meeting Points to a Close Vote

Hong Kong

United Energy Group is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas, alongside clean energy and energy trading businesses. The company also trades energy products, including petrochemicals, and constructs and operates solar power generation facilities. It operates across Pakistan, South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Headquartered in Central, Hong Kong, the company was incorporated in 1992.

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United Energy Group (467 HK)

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 17th): AIA, United Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight top 3 companies repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK), United Energy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) Banks, Real Estate, Telcos, and Big ETF Sales

This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Hong Kong Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Tables and charts of flows and positions on the largest and most...

Travis Lundy

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated....

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Adjourned Scheme Meeting Points to a Close Vote

Risk-reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This...

Arun George

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