Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.</li>
<li>We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  </li>
<li>It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.</li>
<li>UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.</li>
<li>For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.</li>
</ul>


A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.
UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.
For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.


A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Near Record High After U.S. 4th of July Holiday</li>
<li>UMC: +4.7% Premium; One of the Highest Levels in History -- Short</li>
<li>ASE: +4.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Near Record High After U.S. 4th of July Holiday
UMC: +4.7% Premium; One of the Highest Levels in History -- Short
ASE: +4.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Hua Hong Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's secular bull market continues this year with record buying from mainland investors through the Southbound Connect platform.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> announced a positive profit alert of of 150% increase in profit for 2024.  The AI, phone and auto segments saw value content increases.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> is well-positioned to cater to China's increasing demand for locally designed and produced chips, especially in the EV, smart home appliances and wearables industries.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's secular bull market continues this year with record buying from mainland investors through the Southbound Connect platform.

AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) announced a positive profit alert of of 150% increase in profit for 2024.  The AI, phone and auto segments saw value content increases.


Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) is well-positioned to cater to China's increasing demand for locally designed and produced chips, especially in the EV, smart home appliances and wearables industries.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC Secures Key Qualcomm Advanced Packaging Order; Breakthrough in High-Growth Chip Supply Chain Segment</li>
<li>Why TSMC Remains Critical for QCOM Manufacturing, Yet UMC Provides a Strong Strategic Counterbalance</li>
<li>UMC Must Prove Itself, but QCOM Win Sparks Optimism for Sentiment and Outlook Recovery -- Maintain TSMC as Structural Long &amp; Rate UMC as Outperform</li>
</ul>


UMC Secures Key Qualcomm Advanced Packaging Order; Breakthrough in High-Growth Chip Supply Chain Segment
Why TSMC Remains Critical for QCOM Manufacturing, Yet UMC Provides a Strong Strategic Counterbalance
UMC Must Prove Itself, but QCOM Win Sparks Optimism for Sentiment and Outlook Recovery -- Maintain TSMC as Structural Long &amp; Rate UMC as Outperform


United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)

Mainland investors are buying record amounts in HK during secular bull mkt. AAC Tech reported positive earnings surprise and Hua Hong is rapidly...

David Mudd

United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC

UMC secures key Qualcomm order, providing strategic counterbalance to TSMC in chip supply chain segment. Optimism likely to improve for UMC's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

​Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)

Mainland investors are buying record amounts in HK during secular bull mkt. AAC Tech reported positive earnings surprise and Hua Hong is rapidly...

David Mudd

United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC

​UMC secures key Qualcomm order, providing strategic counterbalance to TSMC in chip supply chain segment. Optimism likely to improve for UMC's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

UMC secures key Qualcomm order, providing strategic counterbalance to TSMC in chip supply chain segment. Optimism likely to improve for UMC's...