Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  </li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a>, which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  </li>
<li>If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  </li>
</ul>


Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  
Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  
If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.</li>
<li>The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   </li>
<li>UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  </li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.
The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   
UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>UMC Misses 4Q24 Expectations -- Gross Margin Dips with Flat QoQ Revenue</li>
<li>UMC Guides for 40% Reduction in Capex Budget -- We Believe Signals Strategic Shift to Less Capex Intensive Business Model</li>
<li>Intel 12nm Partnership Remains on Track and is Key Business Model for Future; UMC Sees Improvement in Consumer Electronics Industry Inventories</li>
</ul>


UMC Misses 4Q24 Expectations -- Gross Margin Dips with Flat QoQ Revenue
UMC Guides for 40% Reduction in Capex Budget -- We Believe Signals Strategic Shift to Less Capex Intensive Business Model
Intel 12nm Partnership Remains on Track and is Key Business Model for Future; UMC Sees Improvement in Consumer Electronics Industry Inventories


United Microelectronics 4Q24 Results: Intel Partnership On Track and Is A Key Model for UMC's Future

<ul>
<li>Shipment: expected to decrease by mid-single-digits QoQ ASP: Remains flat in USD/NTD appreciation may lead to decline for 1Q25 sales. </li>
<li>UMC's addressable market in 2025 will grow in the low-single-digits YoY, driven by a moderate recovery in consumer applications in mature nodes.  </li>
<li>1Q25 consumer will grow QoQ thanks to higher DTV, DDI, Wi-Fi, and STB demand. Other applications will decline QoQ.</li>
</ul>


Shipment: expected to decrease by mid-single-digits QoQ ASP: Remains flat in USD/NTD appreciation may lead to decline for 1Q25 sales. 
UMC's addressable market in 2025 will grow in the low-single-digits YoY, driven by a moderate recovery in consumer applications in mature nodes.  
1Q25 consumer will grow QoQ thanks to higher DTV, DDI, Wi-Fi, and STB demand. Other applications will decline QoQ.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Earthquake Alters 1Q25 Outlook; 2025 Growth Expected to Low Single Digits YoY

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, there was a further improvement to -5% QoQ for UMC, and its gross margin is at around 26-28%.</li>
<li>The extra improvement is from Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), which has also received an additional order from Vivo.   </li>
<li>The outlook remains unclear as Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing uncertainties in 2025.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, there was a further improvement to -5% QoQ for UMC, and its gross margin is at around 26-28%.
The extra improvement is from Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), which has also received an additional order from Vivo.   
The outlook remains unclear as Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing uncertainties in 2025.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics 4Q24 Results: Intel Partnership On Track and Is A Key Model for UMC's Future

UMC's 4Q24 results disappoint with lower gross margin and flat revenue. Plans to reduce capex by 40% hint at shift to less capital-intensive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Earthquake Alters 1Q25 Outlook; 2025 Growth Expected to Low Single Digits YoY

UMC expects decrease in shipments and flat ASP for 1Q25, but anticipates growth in consumer applications for the quarter.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook

UMC sees further improvement in 1Q25 with -5% QoQ, boosted by Novatek Microelectronics Corp and Vivo order, while Samsung Electronics faces...

Patrick Liao

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

​Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

​Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics 4Q24 Results: Intel Partnership On Track and Is A Key Model for UMC's Future

​UMC's 4Q24 results disappoint with lower gross margin and flat revenue. Plans to reduce capex by 40% hint at shift to less capital-intensive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Earthquake Alters 1Q25 Outlook; 2025 Growth Expected to Low Single Digits YoY

​UMC expects decrease in shipments and flat ASP for 1Q25, but anticipates growth in consumer applications for the quarter.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook

​UMC sees further improvement in 1Q25 with -5% QoQ, boosted by Novatek Microelectronics Corp and Vivo order, while Samsung Electronics faces...

Patrick Liao

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

UMC's 4Q24 results disappoint with lower gross margin and flat revenue. Plans to reduce capex by 40% hint at shift to less capital-intensive...

UMC expects decrease in shipments and flat ASP for 1Q25, but anticipates growth in consumer applications for the quarter.

UMC sees further improvement in 1Q25 with -5% QoQ, boosted by Novatek Microelectronics Corp and Vivo order, while Samsung Electronics faces...