Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

United States Oil Fund LP / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.</li>
<li>Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.</li>
<li>The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.</li>
</ul>


Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.
Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.
The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.


Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Oil prices and volatility have surged sharply following renewed geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Implied volatility has spiked to multi-year extremes on both short- and medium-term horizons.</li>
<li>We examine whether the move in implied volatility is overdone using a range of historical and model-based metrics</li>
</ul>


Oil prices and volatility have surged sharply following renewed geopolitical tensions.
Implied volatility has spiked to multi-year extremes on both short- and medium-term horizons.
We examine whether the move in implied volatility is overdone using a range of historical and model-based metrics


Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

<ul>
<li>With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.</li>
<li>Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.</li>
<li>Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.</li>
</ul>


With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.


Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>Speculative liquidation of crude oil positions opens up an opportunity</li>
<li>A seasonally strong period for crude tanker rates coming up</li>
<li>Company option scheme for senior management approved. Strike above current price</li>
</ul>


Speculative liquidation of crude oil positions opens up an opportunity
A seasonally strong period for crude tanker rates coming up
Company option scheme for senior management approved. Strike above current price


Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation - Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?

<ul>
<li>All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction</li>
<li>The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off</li>
<li>Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand</li>
</ul>


All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction
The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off
Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand


Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

United States

United States Oil Fund LP is a Delaware limited partnership incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of WTI Crude Oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of the WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the NYMEX. The fund is a commodity pool.

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United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)

Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

Oil prices and implied volatility have surged due to geopolitical headlines, creating opportunities for tactical pair trades and hedging...

John Ley

Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

Geopolitical tensions drive sharp surge in oil prices and volatility, prompting analysis of whether implied volatility ihas over reacted.

John Ley

Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

John Ley

Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

​Oil prices and implied volatility have surged due to geopolitical headlines, creating opportunities for tactical pair trades and hedging...

John Ley

Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

​Geopolitical tensions drive sharp surge in oil prices and volatility, prompting analysis of whether implied volatility ihas over reacted.

John Ley

Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

John Ley

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation - Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?

Although this piece timed the bottom to the day, there is more upside. It is still a laggard as it is "only" up ~40% from a depressed price....

Rikki Malik

Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

​Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...

Rikki Malik

Oil prices and implied volatility have surged due to geopolitical headlines, creating opportunities for tactical pair trades and hedging...

Geopolitical tensions drive sharp surge in oil prices and volatility, prompting analysis of whether implied volatility ihas over reacted.

Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...