Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

United States Oil Fund LP / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.</li>
<li>Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.</li>
<li>The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.</li>
</ul>


Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.
Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.
The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.


Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Oil prices and volatility have surged sharply following renewed geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Implied volatility has spiked to multi-year extremes on both short- and medium-term horizons.</li>
<li>We examine whether the move in implied volatility is overdone using a range of historical and model-based metrics</li>
</ul>


Oil prices and volatility have surged sharply following renewed geopolitical tensions.
Implied volatility has spiked to multi-year extremes on both short- and medium-term horizons.
We examine whether the move in implied volatility is overdone using a range of historical and model-based metrics


Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

<ul>
<li>Single stocks were softer on the week, with breadth continuing to weaken.</li>
<li>Put volumes surged to their highest levels since April; Put open interest continues to rise.</li>
<li>Implied volatility declined on the week despite elevated demand for downside protection.</li>
</ul>


Single stocks were softer on the week, with breadth continuing to weaken.
Put volumes surged to their highest levels since April; Put open interest continues to rise.
Implied volatility declined on the week despite elevated demand for downside protection.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look

China Petroleum & Chemical / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.</li>
<li>Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.</li>
<li>Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.</li>
</ul>


With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.


Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We are overweight US equities and forecast one 25bp rate cut in 2025. Bias is towards growth and momentum stocks - industrials, tech hardware, banks and traditional energy.</li>
<li>US inflation is picking up but won’t spike upwards, even with US import tariffs  rates rising.</li>
<li>While recent macro data have been weak, the business cycle is intact and talk of a recession overblown. The on-going stock market correct is an opportunity to buy on dip.</li>
</ul>


We are overweight US equities and forecast one 25bp rate cut in 2025. Bias is towards growth and momentum stocks - industrials, tech hardware, banks and traditional energy.
US inflation is picking up but won’t spike upwards, even with US import tariffs  rates rising.
While recent macro data have been weak, the business cycle is intact and talk of a recession overblown. The on-going stock market correct is an opportunity to buy on dip.


US Inflation & Recessions Concerns Overdone

United States

United States Oil Fund LP is a Delaware limited partnership incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of WTI Crude Oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of the WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the NYMEX. The fund is a commodity pool.

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United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)

Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

Oil prices and implied volatility have surged due to geopolitical headlines, creating opportunities for tactical pair trades and hedging...

John Ley

Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

Geopolitical tensions drive sharp surge in oil prices and volatility, prompting analysis of whether implied volatility ihas over reacted.

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look

Stocks were weaker with decreasing breadth, but put volumes and open interest rose as demand for downside protection increased. HKD at key level...

John Ley

Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

John Ley

US Inflation & Recessions Concerns Overdone

Overweight US equities - industrials, tech hardware, banks, energy, and defense. Inflation rising but not spiking. Business cycle intact,...

Sharmila Whelan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

​Oil prices and implied volatility have surged due to geopolitical headlines, creating opportunities for tactical pair trades and hedging...

John Ley

Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

​Geopolitical tensions drive sharp surge in oil prices and volatility, prompting analysis of whether implied volatility ihas over reacted.

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look

​Stocks were weaker with decreasing breadth, but put volumes and open interest rose as demand for downside protection increased. HKD at key level...

John Ley

Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

John Ley

US Inflation & Recessions Concerns Overdone

​Overweight US equities - industrials, tech hardware, banks, energy, and defense. Inflation rising but not spiking. Business cycle intact,...

Sharmila Whelan

Oil prices and implied volatility have surged due to geopolitical headlines, creating opportunities for tactical pair trades and hedging...

Geopolitical tensions drive sharp surge in oil prices and volatility, prompting analysis of whether implied volatility ihas over reacted.

Stocks were weaker with decreasing breadth, but put volumes and open interest rose as demand for downside protection increased. HKD at key level...

Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

Overweight US equities - industrials, tech hardware, banks, energy, and defense. Inflation rising but not spiking. Business cycle intact,...