Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

At a Crossroads; Downgrading Transportation; Significant Downside Air Pocket Risk

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are shifting our near-term outlook to neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>Choppy consolidation has continued between support at 6780-6824 and resistance at 7000, and a neutral near-term outlook is appropriate until there is a decisive break in either direction.</li>
<li>We intended to wait for SPX to break below 6780 to downgrade our near-term outlook, continued deterioration in market dynamics suggests a breakout above 7000 is unlikely</li>
</ul>


We are shifting our near-term outlook to neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
Choppy consolidation has continued between support at 6780-6824 and resistance at 7000, and a neutral near-term outlook is appropriate until there is a decisive break in either direction.
We intended to wait for SPX to break below 6780 to downgrade our near-term outlook, continued deterioration in market dynamics suggests a breakout above 7000 is unlikely


iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP US)

iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc

S&P 500 INDEX

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc