Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of our (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>The local low from 3/9/26 still holds, but we are increasingly concerned about potential support violations.</li>
<li>Crucial supports (and downside triggers) are $245 on the Russell 2000(IWM), the 200-day MA (currently 6613) and 6480-6520 on SPX, and 6-month support at 24,000 on Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of our (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
The local low from 3/9/26 still holds, but we are increasingly concerned about potential support violations.
Crucial supports (and downside triggers) are $245 on the Russell 2000(IWM), the 200-day MA (currently 6613) and 6480-6520 on SPX, and 6-month support at 24,000 on Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)


At a Crossroads; Downgrading Transportation; Significant Downside Air Pocket Risk

S&P 500 INDEX

At a Crossroads; Downgrading Transportation; Significant Downside Air Pocket Risk