Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.</li>
<li>We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.</li>
<li>We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.</li>
</ul>


Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.
We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.
We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.


Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch.</li><li>Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally adjusted models based on the weekly EIA time series.</li><li>Conclusions up front: EIA fuel data remains weaker than suggested by actual congestion on roads, in ports and in the air.</li></ul>

Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch.Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally adjusted models based on the weekly EIA time series.Conclusions up front: EIA fuel data remains weaker than suggested by actual congestion on roads, in ports and in the air.

EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas

<ul>
<li>Key takeaways: Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially)</li>
<li>No signs of actual weak gasoline demand</li>
<li>New sanctions on Russia and Iran on the cards?</li>
</ul>


Key takeaways: Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially)
No signs of actual weak gasoline demand
New sanctions on Russia and Iran on the cards?


Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.</li><li>The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.</span></li></ul>

It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>We present a WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a> is oversold, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8656:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Solutions</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">GLD</a> are overbought. Details per sector are displayed in the insight.</li>
</ul>


We present a WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Tencent is oversold, while KOSPI 200 , Nikkei 225, Hitachi Ltd, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Advantest Corp, Hanwha Solutions, GLD are overbought. Details per sector are displayed in the insight.


WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Tencent, SK Hynix, Samsung, KS200, Hitachi, Advantest Corp, Hanwa Solutions

United States

United States Oil Fund LP is a Delaware limited partnership incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of WTI Crude Oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of the WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the NYMEX. The fund is a commodity pool.

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United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)

Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel. We envisage a...

Steno Research

EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas

Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch. Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather

Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially), and there are no signs of actual weak...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come. The crude...

Steno Research

WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Tencent, SK Hynix, Samsung, KS200, Hitachi, Advantest Corp, Hanwa Solutions

Weekly Global Macro Recap Probability Analysis: we apply our model to identify trend formation and exhaustion across Asian and US equities.

Nico Rosti

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)