Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>10Y US Treasury Futures started to rally on Thursday, after the House of Reps approved Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill</li>
<li>The Trump administration has dismissed concerns that the latest bill will harm the nation’s financial standing, even after the U.S. lost its top-tier credit rating last week.</li>
<li>This is a brief insight to try to identify potential profit targets and duration of this rally.</li>
</ul>


10Y US Treasury Futures started to rally on Thursday, after the House of Reps approved Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill
The Trump administration has dismissed concerns that the latest bill will harm the nation’s financial standing, even after the U.S. lost its top-tier credit rating last week.
This is a brief insight to try to identify potential profit targets and duration of this rally.


10Y US Treasury Futures Rally: Tactical Outlook & Key Profit Zones

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The continuation of large budget deficits under the second Trump administration is causing concerns amongst investors about interest rate implications, but Treasury yields are determined by a multitude of factors.  </li>
<li>High government borrowing will typically impart greater stress on financial markets if private sector borrowing is also strong. Long-end yield curve steepening may reflect funding issues due to buyer shortages.</li>
<li>Current expected returns on Treasuries (both nominal and real) are highly elevated compared to recent history and should offer decent protection for investors. </li>
</ul>


The continuation of large budget deficits under the second Trump administration is causing concerns amongst investors about interest rate implications, but Treasury yields are determined by a multitude of factors.  
High government borrowing will typically impart greater stress on financial markets if private sector borrowing is also strong. Long-end yield curve steepening may reflect funding issues due to buyer shortages.
Current expected returns on Treasuries (both nominal and real) are highly elevated compared to recent history and should offer decent protection for investors. 


High Government Borrowing: Nuanced Implications for US Treasuries

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. </li>
<li>FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. </li>
<li>With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. </li>
</ul>


US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. 
FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. 
With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. 


US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

<ul>
<li>FOMC held rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but emphasized that "a reduction could be on the table...in September". From inflation risks alone, the FOMC statement shifted focus to its dual mandate.  </li>
<li>0.9%YoY M2 growth (Jun'24) evidences restrictive monetary conditions. Withdrawing QT after Aug'23 led to Jan-Apr'24 shocks in MoM core PCE, but latter now reined-in by resumed QT since Mar'24.</li>
<li>Core PCE inflation likely to wane to 2.3%YoY by Sep'24, enabling rates to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 FOMC meetings, ignoring political threats regarding the Sep'24 cut.</li>
</ul>


FOMC held rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but emphasized that "a reduction could be on the table...in September". From inflation risks alone, the FOMC statement shifted focus to its dual mandate.  
0.9%YoY M2 growth (Jun'24) evidences restrictive monetary conditions. Withdrawing QT after Aug'23 led to Jan-Apr'24 shocks in MoM core PCE, but latter now reined-in by resumed QT since Mar'24.
Core PCE inflation likely to wane to 2.3%YoY by Sep'24, enabling rates to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 FOMC meetings, ignoring political threats regarding the Sep'24 cut.


FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

10Y US Treasury Futures Rally: Tactical Outlook & Key Profit Zones

10Y US Treasury Futures are rallying after House approval of Trump's bill, despite concerns over financial standing. This insight identifies...

Nico Rosti

High Government Borrowing: Nuanced Implications for US Treasuries

Elevated government borrowing has become normal, but the impact on financial markets also depends on private sector activity. Yields do offer...

DeSaque Macro Research

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

FF rate at a 23-year (real policy rate at 18yr high), M2 growth at 0.9%YoY in Jun'24, create conditions for steady decline in core PCE inflation to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

10Y US Treasury Futures Rally: Tactical Outlook & Key Profit Zones

​10Y US Treasury Futures are rallying after House approval of Trump's bill, despite concerns over financial standing. This insight identifies...

Nico Rosti

High Government Borrowing: Nuanced Implications for US Treasuries

Elevated government borrowing has become normal, but the impact on financial markets also depends on private sector activity. Yields do offer...

DeSaque Macro Research

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

​US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

FF rate at a 23-year (real policy rate at 18yr high), M2 growth at 0.9%YoY in Jun'24, create conditions for steady decline in core PCE inflation to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

10Y US Treasury Futures are rallying after House approval of Trump's bill, despite concerns over financial standing. This insight identifies...

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...