Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Happy Monday! Welcome to our “Week at a Glance” series, where we highlight the key events and trends to watch for the week ahead.</li>
<li>FOMC – ThursdayThe FOMC postponed its meeting to Thursday due to the election.</li>
<li>Although the latest jobs report shows a notable slowdown, partly due to strikes and hurricanes, resulting in the weakest figures since December 2020, the Fed is likely to look past this print.</li>
</ul>


Happy Monday! Welcome to our “Week at a Glance” series, where we highlight the key events and trends to watch for the week ahead.
FOMC – ThursdayThe FOMC postponed its meeting to Thursday due to the election.
Although the latest jobs report shows a notable slowdown, partly due to strikes and hurricanes, resulting in the weakest figures since December 2020, the Fed is likely to look past this print.


The Week at a Glance: US Election & Fed rate decision to guide the path forward

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Despite strong jobs data, the yield curve has inverted once again. This inversion is driven by delay in rate cut expectations.</li>
<li>Encouraging PCE data which showed inflation easing to 2.2% (lowest since 2021 &amp; close to Fed's target), the likelihood of a cumulative 50 bps cut has steadily risen.</li>
<li>Soft landing reduces urgency for aggressive rate cuts, giving the Fed more flexibility to monitor the effects of previous rate hikes and to lower rates more gradually.</li>
</ul>


Despite strong jobs data, the yield curve has inverted once again. This inversion is driven by delay in rate cut expectations.
Encouraging PCE data which showed inflation easing to 2.2% (lowest since 2021 &amp; close to Fed's target), the likelihood of a cumulative 50 bps cut has steadily risen.
Soft landing reduces urgency for aggressive rate cuts, giving the Fed more flexibility to monitor the effects of previous rate hikes and to lower rates more gradually.


Yield Curve Reinverts On Rising Soft Landing Expectations

<ul><li>Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot.</li><li>Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation report either.</li><li>It is once again shelter and transportation that are standing in the way of a soft US CPI print.</li></ul>

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot.Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation report either.It is once again shelter and transportation that are standing in the way of a soft US CPI print.

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

Price Gauge
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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

The Week at a Glance: US Election & Fed rate decision to guide the path forward

Happy Monday! Welcome to our “Week at a Glance” series, where we highlight the key events and trends to watch for the week ahead. FOMC –...

Steno Research

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

Yield Curve Reinverts On Rising Soft Landing Expectations

Despite strong jobs data, yield curve has inverted again on delayed rate cut expectations. Encouraging PCE data suggests a cumulative 50 bps cut...

Mint Finance

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot. Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

The Week at a Glance: US Election & Fed rate decision to guide the path forward

Happy Monday! Welcome to our “Week at a Glance” series, where we highlight the key events and trends to watch for the week ahead. FOMC –...

Steno Research

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

Yield Curve Reinverts On Rising Soft Landing Expectations

​Despite strong jobs data, yield curve has inverted again on delayed rate cut expectations. Encouraging PCE data suggests a cumulative 50 bps cut...

Mint Finance

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot. Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation...

Steno Research

Despite strong jobs data, yield curve has inverted again on delayed rate cut expectations. Encouraging PCE data suggests a cumulative 50 bps cut...