Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit; the only other short-term target in this area is 3.34% (v = i+iii).  However, the rally pattern from last September finally looks more complete, although it could easily produce a minor correction and then a further high prior to a larger correction (i.e. 50 b.p.+).Divergence has appeared in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI , and 21-week…

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit; the only other short-term target in this area is 3.34% (v = i+iii).  However, the rally pattern from last September finally looks more complete, although it could easily produce a minor correction and then a further high prior to a larger correction (i.e. 50 b.p.+).Divergence has appeared in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI , and 21-week…

US 10-Year:  Due to Pause in Its Bear Market

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

By confronting Beijing over the US deficit in bilateral trade, President Trump has opened a Pandora’s Box of grievances concerning the broader aspects of the US/China relationship which have been mainly suppressed since the GFC.It’s not clear if President Trump had intended to challenge the whole basis of the US/China relationship or whether he was just looking for a big win on specific trade-related issues before the midterm elections in early November, but the broader Washington policymaking establishment is now pushing an agenda for China to reverse the authoritarian shift in political and economic policies which has been evident since the GFC.The rising tensions between the two global superpowers are an additional headwind for emerging equities, which are starting to underperform their developed peers due to the rising dollar and crowded long positions in EM debt and equity.  Dedicated EM or NJA investors should switch from the more cyclical markets such as Taiwan and Korea, towards those markets in South East Asia, which have come under the most intense pressure from rising US bond yields, namely Indonesia and the Philippines.Further out, the most vulnerable market to the US/China dispute(s) should be China itself, which has been designated as a safe haven by many big investors, a stance which will be undermined if the rising dollar and increasing pressure from Washington, are catalysts for renewed capital outflows. A strong dollar will also limit Beijing’s ability to provide a renewed stimulus, as the reflation which has relieved the pressure on the most heavily indebted industrial sectors, subsides.

By confronting Beijing over the US deficit in bilateral trade, President Trump has opened a Pandora’s Box of grievances concerning the broader aspects of the US/China relationship which have been mainly suppressed since the GFC.It’s not clear if President Trump had intended to challenge the whole basis of the US/China relationship or whether he was just looking for a big win on specific trade-related issues before the midterm elections in early November, but the broader Washington policymaking establishment is now pushing an agenda for China to reverse the authoritarian shift in political and economic policies which has been evident since the GFC.The rising tensions between the two global superpowers are an additional headwind for emerging equities, which are starting to underperform their developed peers due to the rising dollar and crowded long positions in EM debt and equity.  Dedicated EM or NJA investors should switch from the more cyclical markets such as Taiwan and Korea, towards those markets in South East Asia, which have come under the most intense pressure from rising US bond yields, namely Indonesia and the Philippines.Further out, the most vulnerable market to the US/China dispute(s) should be China itself, which has been designated as a safe haven by many big investors, a stance which will be undermined if the rising dollar and increasing pressure from Washington, are catalysts for renewed capital outflows. A strong dollar will also limit Beijing’s ability to provide a renewed stimulus, as the reflation which has relieved the pressure on the most heavily indebted industrial sectors, subsides. 

The US/China Relationship: Investors Complacent Despite Irreconcilable Differences

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% today (the vote was unanimous).  The policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment…

As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% today (the vote was unanimous).  The policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment…

Fed Holds Steady; Treasury Boosts Issuance Again

We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet wind down to illustrate a path for longer-term Treasury yields.  Our statistical model implies a further backup in bond yields in 2018 and 2019.  Fiscal trends and the runoff of Fed Treasury holdings should also act against a further material flattening of the Treasury yield curve this year and next.

We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet wind down to illustrate a path for longer-term Treasury yields.  Our statistical model implies a further backup in bond yields in 2018 and 2019.  Fiscal trends and the runoff of Fed Treasury holdings should also act against a further material flattening of the Treasury yield curve this year and next.

U.S. Deficit Financing, Yields, and the Shape of the Treasury Curve

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

US 10-Year: Due to Pause in Its Bear Market

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit;...

Peter Beuttell

Global Bond Yields Set to Rise Further

We see higher US and global yields developing. Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade...

Greg Gibbs

The US/China Relationship: Investors Complacent Despite Irreconcilable Differences

By confronting Beijing over the US deficit in bilateral trade, President Trump has opened a Pandora’s Box of grievances concerning the broader...

John-Paul Smith

Fed Holds Steady; Treasury Boosts Issuance Again

As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% today (the vote was unanimous). The policy statement...

RDQ Economics

U.S. Deficit Financing, Yields, and the Shape of the Treasury Curve

We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet...

RDQ Economics

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