Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

President Trump released his first full budget plan today ("<a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BUDGET-2018-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2018-BUD.pdf" target="_blank">A New Foundation For American Greatness</a>").  The President's fiscal year 2018 budget (OMB) proposes a $3.6 trillion reduction in federal spending over the 10-year forecast horizon with large cuts to social safety net programs (spending on Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, nutrition assistance, and disability is slashed by a combined $960 billion).  Trump's budget also assumes $1.4 trillion in savings over 10 years from a…

President Trump released his first full budget plan today ("A New Foundation For American Greatness").  The President's fiscal year 2018 budget (OMB) proposes a $3.6 trillion reduction in federal spending over the 10-year forecast horizon with large cuts to social safety net programs (spending on Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, nutrition assistance, and disability is slashed by a combined $960 billion).  Trump's budget also assumes $1.4 trillion in savings over 10 years from a…

Friday brought important data on retail sales and consumer prices for the U.S.  Here is a summary:<h2>Retail Sales</h2>Overall retail sales rose 0.4% in April, a smaller gain than forecasts.  Building material store sales—which are not part of consumer spending in GDP because they are an intermediate good—rose 1.2% in April, while furniture store sales declined 0.5%.  Apparel store sales fell 0.5%, though sales at eating and drinking establishments rose 0.4%.  Sales at nonstore retailers—which includes…

Friday brought important data on retail sales and consumer prices for the U.S.  Here is a summary:Retail SalesOverall retail sales rose 0.4% in April, a smaller gain than forecasts.  Building material store sales—which are not part of consumer spending in GDP because they are an intermediate good—rose 1.2% in April, while furniture store sales declined 0.5%.  Apparel store sales fell 0.5%, though sales at eating and drinking establishments rose 0.4%.  Sales at nonstore retailers—which includes…

Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 in April, which was stronger than the median consensus projection,  with private payrolls up 194,000.  Payroll gains were broad-based by sector and 60.2% of private firms added positions in the month.The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% as the participation rate slipped 0.1% point to 62.9% and household employment increased 156,000.  The U6 underemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 8.9% on another sharp decline in part-time workers for economic reasons.Average…

Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 in April, which was stronger than the median consensus projection,  with private payrolls up 194,000.  Payroll gains were broad-based by sector and 60.2% of private firms added positions in the month.The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% as the participation rate slipped 0.1% point to 62.9% and household employment increased 156,000.  The U6 underemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 8.9% on another sharp decline in part-time workers for economic reasons.Average…

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 211,000 In April; Unemployment Rate Fell To Prior-Cycle Low

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 0.75%–0.1% today.  The Fed's policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed,” however, “The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory.”  On the labor market, “Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined.”  There were no dissents today.…

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 0.75%–0.1% today.  The Fed's policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed,” however, “The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory.”  On the labor market, “Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined.”  There were no dissents today.…

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged—No New Signals on the Policy Outlook

Part 4 of our inflation insights series includes a discussion of the importance of core PCE prices to the Federal Reserve, our finding that Fed Chair Janet Yellen's claim that core PCE inflation is "a better forward-looking predictor of headline inflation" is not supported by the data (Fed researchers have come to the same conclusion as ours), and we provide some thoughts on other measures of underlying U.S. inflation.

Part 4 of our inflation insights series includes a discussion of the importance of core PCE prices to the Federal Reserve, our finding that Fed Chair Janet Yellen's claim that core PCE inflation is "a better forward-looking predictor of headline inflation" is not supported by the data (Fed researchers have come to the same conclusion as ours), and we provide some thoughts on other measures of underlying U.S. inflation.

U.S. Inflation Part 4: How Important Is the Slowing in Core PCE Inflation?

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Trump's Fanciful Budget Proposal

President Trump released his first full budget plan today ("A New Foundation For American Greatness"). The President's fiscal year 2018 budget...

RDQ Economics

U.S. April CPI and Retail Sales

Friday brought important data on retail sales and consumer prices for the U.S. Here is a summary:Retail SalesOverall retail sales rose 0.4% in...

RDQ Economics

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 211,000 In April; Unemployment Rate Fell To Prior-Cycle Low

Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 in April, which was stronger than the median consensus projection, with private payrolls up 194,000. Payroll gains...

RDQ Economics

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged—No New Signals on the Policy Outlook

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 0.75%–0.1% today. The Fed's policy...

RDQ Economics

U.S. Inflation Part 4: How Important Is the Slowing in Core PCE Inflation?

Part 4 of our inflation insights series includes a discussion of the importance of core PCE prices to the Federal Reserve, our finding that Fed...

RDQ Economics

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