Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US equities are flirting with a topping sequence if key sectors fail to hold gains. Tech is the underperform short hedge. Transports having trouble clearing 9,500 as small caps fade. XLF met our ideal 25.28 rally objective/projection.NYSE Advance/decline line turned down hard and is now threatening pivot support which is a key trigger for a US equity correction or blow off rise.Cycle call for a turn up in yields, down in gold and oil with a stronger USD increases odds of  US equities fading and seeing the slated 2-4% correction (hard to make money on the downside outside of focusing on EM shorts).T-Note is due for a reaction bounce to 124.70 but the macro bear wedge sets a very bearish tone for a big move up in yield (telegraphing a Fed rate hike) and supporting a DXY break above 101.80. Yield target remains at 2.74% with scope to 3%.DXY break above 101.80 faded. Need to see the Euro break and stay below 1.05 which would induce broader USD strength. Dollar give back window ahead of NFP.EEM dip target at sub 37. Our short pair with the S&amp;P is in gaining some traction. Trade is to buy a March dip below 37 for a rise to 42. Short Turkey average at 89,200. Short Brazil at 70,000+.Long Japan – Fresh long from 18,950 with pivot support at 18,900. Long banks but must break above 200 or fade. Inpex cut (-1.46%). USD/JPY kissed 114.60 barrier and faces pullback to 113.20.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-5.9%). Small Taiwan pair short w long TSMC. STI 3,135 short. Look to add to Korea short at 275. Probing to short Nifty just under 9,050 (tactical pullback only)Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752 (will add on alleged pullback). Long A share fut from 10,050 (disturbing price action). H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, BABA, CCB and ICBC. Australian banks from 6,658. KOSPI long sold (+3.88%). Long KEPCO at 42.2k. KLSE long sold (+2.29%).Cycles – A number of signals (A/D line triangle resolution) align with equities making an important crest. Game plan is to trim US into strength (Europe perform), put on protection and buy a March correction. Gold and oil reluctant to decline so far.

US equities are flirting with a topping sequence if key sectors fail to hold gains. Tech is the underperform short hedge. Transports having trouble clearing 9,500 as small caps fade. XLF met our ideal 25.28 rally objective/projection.NYSE Advance/decline line turned down hard and is now threatening pivot support which is a key trigger for a US equity correction or blow off rise.Cycle call for a turn up in yields, down in gold and oil with a stronger USD increases odds of  US equities fading and seeing the slated 2-4% correction (hard to make money on the downside outside of focusing on EM shorts).T-Note is due for a reaction bounce to 124.70 but the macro bear wedge sets a very bearish tone for a big move up in yield (telegraphing a Fed rate hike) and supporting a DXY break above 101.80. Yield target remains at 2.74% with scope to 3%.DXY break above 101.80 faded. Need to see the Euro break and stay below 1.05 which would induce broader USD strength. Dollar give back window ahead of NFP.EEM dip target at sub 37. Our short pair with the S&amp;P is in gaining some traction. Trade is to buy a March dip below 37 for a rise to 42. Short Turkey average at 89,200. Short Brazil at 70,000+.Long Japan – Fresh long from 18,950 with pivot support at 18,900. Long banks but must break above 200 or fade. Inpex cut (-1.46%). USD/JPY kissed 114.60 barrier and faces pullback to 113.20.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-5.9%). Small Taiwan pair short w long TSMC. STI 3,135 short. Look to add to Korea short at 275. Probing to short Nifty just under 9,050 (tactical pullback only)Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752 (will add on alleged pullback). Long A share fut from 10,050 (disturbing price action). H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, BABA, CCB and ICBC. Australian banks from 6,658. KOSPI long sold (+3.88%). Long KEPCO at 42.2k. KLSE long sold (+2.29%).Cycles – A number of signals (A/D line triangle resolution) align with equities making an important crest. Game plan is to trim US into strength (Europe perform), put on protection and buy a March correction. Gold and oil reluctant to decline so far.

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 22 February 2017<div>Key turn cycle and T-Note complacency</div>To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/61XlIFLF4GO9" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/61XlIFLF4GO9</a> 7:03 min.<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/339/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1487744035" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21339"></figure><div class="content-caption">US equity T Note cycle webcast</div>
</div>The following key themes will be expanded upon this weekend but we thought a teaser was would help communicate how important the upcoming turn cycle is.<div>We have been bullish equities but see a tactical cycle peak due next week if not by Feb 24th. Will this cycle induce a low in yield, high in gold? How the USD…</div>

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 22 February 2017Key turn cycle and T-Note complacencyTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/61XlIFLF4GO9 7:03 min.
US equity T Note cycle webcast
The following key themes will be expanded upon this weekend but we thought a teaser was would help communicate how important the upcoming turn cycle is.We have been bullish equities but see a tactical cycle peak due next week if not by Feb 24th. Will this cycle induce a low in yield, high in gold? How the USD…

US equities corrective bull wedge formations are still on track to break higher with follow through looked for this week (above XLF 23.80). We touted some VIX protection in case equities continue their sideways grind.USD did not get the lift expected out of a strong NFP number. Concerns over payrolls AHE will fade as other inflation pockets are steadfast. DXY 99 support remains a critical turn zone particularly after the GBP and Euro reversals from resistance points. Patterns are USD constructive outside of parts of EM FX and the likes of CAD and AUD.T-Note – If we get this right we will get the dollar and equities spot on. Pivot resistance at 125.33 expected to cap upside attempts for a fresh assault on the 123.60 pivot support that once broken will turn the USD tide back to bullish and will bleed into global financials.Gold – Our sell zone near 1,230 remains valid. Copper is breaking down (short uptick) and will weigh on China linked assets.WTI – Short level at 54.50 for quick swing lower with a very tight stop.EEM 37+ will shape a stall zone to underperform given our bullish USD stance from DXY 100/99. EEM pair short/S&amp;P long (entered a bit early).Long Japan – Nikkei long slice added at 18,950. Banks added to the mix. USD/JPY fresh long from 112.25 with risk point at sub 111.32. JGB chart on page 2.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-6%). Shorted Taiwan at 9,450 (relative weak link), STI short at 4,040 and DBS at 18.80 to offset Asia long positioning in the event we see further deterioration in the up cycle and a relative pairing. Will quickly cover offset shorts if we see rally energy early this week (must see US financials breakout)Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752 (looking to add). Long A shares from 10,050. H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, Angang Steel, Tencent and BABA. KOSPI long from 258.85. Long Catcher (+6%). Working into KEPCO near 43k (under water). Long KLSE from 1,670.Cycles – If XLF closes above 23.80 this week, US equities will break higher (USD up/gold down) and reach for the next cycle time line near February 27/March 4th representing a bigger turn phase.

US equities corrective bull wedge formations are still on track to break higher with follow through looked for this week (above XLF 23.80). We touted some VIX protection in case equities continue their sideways grind.USD did not get the lift expected out of a strong NFP number. Concerns over payrolls AHE will fade as other inflation pockets are steadfast. DXY 99 support remains a critical turn zone particularly after the GBP and Euro reversals from resistance points. Patterns are USD constructive outside of parts of EM FX and the likes of CAD and AUD.T-Note – If we get this right we will get the dollar and equities spot on. Pivot resistance at 125.33 expected to cap upside attempts for a fresh assault on the 123.60 pivot support that once broken will turn the USD tide back to bullish and will bleed into global financials.Gold – Our sell zone near 1,230 remains valid. Copper is breaking down (short uptick) and will weigh on China linked assets.WTI – Short level at 54.50 for quick swing lower with a very tight stop.EEM 37+ will shape a stall zone to underperform given our bullish USD stance from DXY 100/99. EEM pair short/S&amp;P long (entered a bit early).Long Japan – Nikkei long slice added at 18,950. Banks added to the mix. USD/JPY fresh long from 112.25 with risk point at sub 111.32. JGB chart on page 2.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-6%). Shorted Taiwan at 9,450 (relative weak link), STI short at 4,040 and DBS at 18.80 to offset Asia long positioning in the event we see further deterioration in the up cycle and a relative pairing. Will quickly cover offset shorts if we see rally energy early this week (must see US financials breakout)Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752 (looking to add). Long A shares from 10,050. H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, Angang Steel, Tencent and BABA. KOSPI long from 258.85. Long Catcher (+6%). Working into KEPCO near 43k (under water). Long KLSE from 1,670.Cycles – If XLF closes above 23.80 this week, US equities will break higher (USD up/gold down) and reach for the next cycle time line near February 27/March 4th representing a bigger turn phase.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

March Transition

US equities are flirting with a topping sequence if key sectors fail to hold gains. Tech is the underperform short hedge. Transports having trouble...

Thomas Schroeder

US Fade Cycle and T-Note Complacency

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 22 February 2017Key turn cycle and T-Note complacencyTo view click on this...

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Equities Leading a Yield Inflection

US equities corrective bull wedge formations are still on track to break higher with follow through looked for this week (above XLF 23.80). We...

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