Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.</li><li>Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.</li><li>The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.

Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The combination of policy decisions in the US rates markets has led to a significant decline in tenure yields.</li><li>There appears to be policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, with the treasury displaying flexibility and the Fed focusing on tightening in financial conditions.</li><li>The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide forward guidance on policy tightening, with expectations of a move towards a neutral bias and steps towards eventual easing or cutting. Inflation language in the statement may also be up for debate.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The combination of policy decisions in the US rates markets has led to a significant decline in tenure yields.There appears to be policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, with the treasury displaying flexibility and the Fed focusing on tightening in financial conditions.The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide forward guidance on policy tightening, with expectations of a move towards a neutral bias and steps towards eventual easing or cutting. Inflation language in the statement may also be up for debate.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: The Calm Before The (Policy) Storm

<ul><li>The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut.</li><li>This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment of the disinflationary pressures, which have proven to be stronger than initially anticipated by the ECB.</li><li>Lagarde even acknowledged progress on disinflation compared to the December baseline just over the past few weeks.</li></ul>

The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut.This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment of the disinflationary pressures, which have proven to be stronger than initially anticipated by the ECB.Lagarde even acknowledged progress on disinflation compared to the December baseline just over the past few weeks.

ECB Watch: The ECB is likely wrong on all major parameters

<ul><li>The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries.</li><li>The early consensus in Germany is all over the place with entries on the HICP nationwide MoM in Germany ranging from -0.4% from Credit Agricole to 0.2% from Hamburg Commercial bank.</li><li>Our now-cast is currently at -0.54% for Germany but we will continue to watch the price developments carefully daily.</li></ul>

The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries.The early consensus in Germany is all over the place with entries on the HICP nationwide MoM in Germany ranging from -0.4% from Credit Agricole to 0.2% from Hamburg Commercial bank.Our now-cast is currently at -0.54% for Germany but we will continue to watch the price developments carefully daily.

EUR-flation Nugget: A brief nowcast update..

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.</li>
<li>However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.</li>
<li>The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.
However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.
The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.


Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

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Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red...

Steno Research

US Rates: The Calm Before The (Policy) Storm

The US rates market has experienced a slowdown in coupon auction increases and ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes, while the Federal...

At Any Rate

ECB Watch: The ECB is likely wrong on all major parameters

The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut. This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment...

Steno Research

EUR-flation Nugget: A brief nowcast update..

The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries. The early consensus in...

Steno Research

Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

The quick answer is that the Magnificent 7 are not a significant threat to the risk-return characteristics of your portfolio. However, the case for...

Jeroen Blokland

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