Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Both Biden and Xi find themselves walking on thin ice as domestic economic challenges pose a significant challenge to their foreign policy goals.</li><li>Amidst the considerable volatility in risk assets and US Treasury bonds, we believe that commodities could present a favorable risk-reward opportunity.</li><li>Our forecast of a possible recession is further complicated by price pressures arising from the pending restocking and the geopolitical risksIt’s hard to overlook the remarkable resilience of the US economy and the current turbulence in global bond markets.</li></ul>

Both Biden and Xi find themselves walking on thin ice as domestic economic challenges pose a significant challenge to their foreign policy goals.Amidst the considerable volatility in risk assets and US Treasury bonds, we believe that commodities could present a favorable risk-reward opportunity.Our forecast of a possible recession is further complicated by price pressures arising from the pending restocking and the geopolitical risksIt’s hard to overlook the remarkable resilience of the US economy and the current turbulence in global bond markets.

EM by EM #26: Biden, Blinken, Barrels & Beijing

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul>
<li>Some much-needed bids provided relief to the bedrock treasury market last week, and yields eased off a bit.</li>
<li>The relief was short-lived though, and this week’s yields continue its climb.</li>
<li>But, is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds, or is the cocktail of vast issuance, some CBs unwinding their holdings, and still poor appetite bound to send yields even higher?</li>
</ul>


Some much-needed bids provided relief to the bedrock treasury market last week, and yields eased off a bit.
The relief was short-lived though, and this week’s yields continue its climb.
But, is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds, or is the cocktail of vast issuance, some CBs unwinding their holdings, and still poor appetite bound to send yields even higher?


US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attention</li><li>BoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).</li><li>Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.</li></ul>

Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attentionBoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

EM by EM #26: Biden, Blinken, Barrels & Beijing

Both Biden and Xi find themselves walking on thin ice as domestic economic challenges pose a significant challenge to their foreign...

Steno Research

US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?

Some much-needed bids provided relief to the bedrock treasury market last week, and yields eased off a bit. The relief was short-lived though, and...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Welcome to this week’s edition of our weekly recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’. Which fool said macro was boring? Loads of moves to address but we’ve...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)