Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?</li><li>Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.</li><li>We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.</li></ul>

Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In September, issuance and QT in SGBs ramps up to more than 9 bn/month from nothing during the holidays.</li><li>Reduced ECB buying and a rate hike pause while long-term inflation expectations rise suggest "risk-premium".</li><li>Tighter covered spreads=True</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In September, issuance and QT in SGBs ramps up to more than 9 bn/month from nothing during the holidays.Reduced ECB buying and a rate hike pause while long-term inflation expectations rise suggest "risk-premium".Tighter covered spreads=TrueContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SEK rates weekly: Bond issuance about to level up

<ul><li>In recent months, investors and economists have marked down the probability of a recession, after growth has surprised on the upside and inflation has surprised on the downside.</li><li>This has fueled equity prices, lifted interest rates , and weighed on the US dollar.</li><li>Put together, it looks like the perfect picture of a soft landing – everyone is getting exactly what they want – slowing inflation and a strong economy.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In recent months, investors and economists have marked down the probability of a recession, after growth has surprised on the upside and inflation has surprised on the downside.This has fueled equity prices, lifted interest rates , and weighed on the US dollar.Put together, it looks like the perfect picture of a soft landing – everyone is getting exactly what they want – slowing inflation and a strong economy.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Yet another month Japanese investors increased their US exposure and bought EUR 11.73bn worth of Treasury bonds in June.</li>
<li>Thus, their holdings in US Treasuries has increased by EUR 82bn in the first half of 2023 after the massive sell-off in 2022.</li>
<li>In line with the investor distribution data published by the Danish central bank, Japanese investors reduced their positions in Danish callable bonds by EUR 0.23bn in June.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Yet another month Japanese investors increased their US exposure and bought EUR 11.73bn worth of Treasury bonds in June.
Thus, their holdings in US Treasuries has increased by EUR 82bn in the first half of 2023 after the massive sell-off in 2022.
In line with the investor distribution data published by the Danish central bank, Japanese investors reduced their positions in Danish callable bonds by EUR 0.23bn in June.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Bond Investments: The Japanese buying of US bonds continued in June

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

With MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation back to its 2022 levels, is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

SEK rates weekly: Bond issuance about to level up

In September, issuance and QT in SGBs ramps up to more than 9 bn/month from nothing during the holidays. Reduced ECB buying and a rate hike pause...

Nordea

Macro & Markets: Soft landing dreams

Fading recession risks.In recent months, investors and economists have marked down the probability of a recession, after growth has surprised on...

Nordea

Global Bond Investments: The Japanese buying of US bonds continued in June

Yet another month Japanese investors increased their US exposure and bought EUR 11.73bn worth of Treasury bonds in June.

Nordea

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)