Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.</li>
<li> Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.
From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
 Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.</li>
<li>With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.</li>
<li>We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.
With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.
We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.


5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Key summer developments at a glance: The Fed increased the funds rate by 25bp to the range 5.25-5.50%.</li><li>The central bank signalled that it will remain data dependent, maintaining its hiking bias on the back of inflation worries.</li><li>Still robust data from the real economy but also lower inflation data has buoyed markets view of a soft landing.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Key summer developments at a glance: The Fed increased the funds rate by 25bp to the range 5.25-5.50%.The central bank signalled that it will remain data dependent, maintaining its hiking bias on the back of inflation worries.Still robust data from the real economy but also lower inflation data has buoyed markets view of a soft landing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>In recent years my holiday calendar has been a good indicator of performance in the Danish callable bond market.</li><li>I know that some think I’m too harsh on the risk element in the callable bond market but there is a much better reason for the strong performance in July which could be an early bird for something positive.</li><li>I also look at the switch in the on-the-run bond maturities (2053-&gt;2056) and conclude that the 5% 2056 bonds are sold too cheaply at the moment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In recent years my holiday calendar has been a good indicator of performance in the Danish callable bond market.I know that some think I’m too harsh on the risk element in the callable bond market but there is a much better reason for the strong performance in July which could be an early bird for something positive.I also look at the switch in the on-the-run bond maturities (2053-&gt;2056) and conclude that the 5% 2056 bonds are sold too cheaply at the moment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bonds & bold: There is something in the air

<ul>
<li>“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.</li>
<li>Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.</li>
</ul>


“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.
The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.
Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.


Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

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Curve Steepeners and the Boomer Trade

As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. With US CPI being...

Steno Research

Macro & Markets: Welcome back

Key summer developments at a glance: The Fed increased the funds rate by 25bp to the range 5.25-5.50%. The central bank signalled that it will...

Nordea

Bonds & bold: There is something in the air

In recent years my holiday calendar has been a good indicator of performance in the Danish callable bond market. I know that some think I’m too...

Nordea

Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a...

Steno Research

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