Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the demand for getting credit.</li>
<li>The trends are interestingly slightly weaker in the US SLOOS survey, which is the first hint of a US Economy, which may surprise negatively 2-3 quarters ahead relatively to Europe.</li>
<li>Yes, I see a rate of change move from a very negative number to a slightly less negative number as a positive, as markets care about the rate of change and not nominal levels, even if it means that demand is still subdued.</li>
</ul>


The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the demand for getting credit.
The trends are interestingly slightly weaker in the US SLOOS survey, which is the first hint of a US Economy, which may surprise negatively 2-3 quarters ahead relatively to Europe.
Yes, I see a rate of change move from a very negative number to a slightly less negative number as a positive, as markets care about the rate of change and not nominal levels, even if it means that demand is still subdued.


Credit Watch: If you SLOOS you lose – the 5 best charts from the SLOOS survey

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

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<ul>
<li>The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.</li>
<li>The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.</li>
<li>We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.
The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.
We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul>
<li>As we conclude this week’s Central Bank Bonanza, we believe it is pertinent to share some of the soft data charts we are closely monitoring while assessing the outlook for the upcoming quarters.</li>
<li>The wisdom of the crowds, often overlooked, can offer an interesting perspective for financial markets currently processing the latest rate decisions.</li>
<li>In the coming days, we plan to offer a more comprehensive take as to how we see things going in the coming quarters and how we would choose to ideally play it.</li>
</ul>


As we conclude this week’s Central Bank Bonanza, we believe it is pertinent to share some of the soft data charts we are closely monitoring while assessing the outlook for the upcoming quarters.
The wisdom of the crowds, often overlooked, can offer an interesting perspective for financial markets currently processing the latest rate decisions.
In the coming days, we plan to offer a more comprehensive take as to how we see things going in the coming quarters and how we would choose to ideally play it.


Consumer Watch: Is the FED & ECB Nudging the Same Herd? 5 Charts We Watch

<ul>
<li>The FOMC today delivered a well telegraphed 25bps rate hike.</li>
<li>The new fed funds target range is 5.25% to 5.5%.</li>
<li>While the rate hike was unanimous, the Chairman said there was a range of opinions at the committee, something that we will no doubt hear more about over the next weeks and in the meeting minutes.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The FOMC today delivered a well telegraphed 25bps rate hike.
The new fed funds target range is 5.25% to 5.5%.
While the rate hike was unanimous, the Chairman said there was a range of opinions at the committee, something that we will no doubt hear more about over the next weeks and in the meeting minutes.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

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Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

Credit Watch: If you SLOOS you lose – the 5 best charts from the SLOOS survey

The ECB survey on credit conditions in the Euro area was out last week, and it revealed a small rebound in both the ease of getting credit and the...

Steno Research

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility...

Nordea

Consumer Watch: Is the FED & ECB Nudging the Same Herd? 5 Charts We Watch

As we conclude this week’s Central Bank Bonanza, we believe it is pertinent to share some of the soft data charts we are closely monitoring while...

Steno Research

FOMC Review: Data dependent

While the rate hike was unanimous, the Chairman said there was a range of opinions at the committee, something that we will no doubt hear more...

Nordea

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Market Cap (USDm)

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