House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A tough start, the new year has not started very well, especially for some asset classes.</li><li>In the first days of the year, the 10-Year Treasury Yield rose sharply, going from 1.5% to 1.75%, a very large move (25 bps).</li><li>It is clear that the sector rotation is back, and that value stocks are now overperforming growth stocks again (as already happened in the first half of 2021).</li></ul>

A tough start, the new year has not started very well, especially for some asset classes.In the first days of the year, the 10-Year Treasury Yield rose sharply, going from 1.5% to 1.75%, a very large move (25 bps).It is clear that the sector rotation is back, and that value stocks are now overperforming growth stocks again (as already happened in the first half of 2021).

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX macro trendline support.</li>
<li>NDX long term trendline make or break support lies at 15,300. We expect a break in later Q1 but if broken now it will bring forward a negative risk cycle.</li>
<li>Our macro 10yr yield rise to the 2%+ region for a top correlated with a peak in the equity cycle in late Q1. Rate sensitive ration undercurrents.</li>
</ul>


We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX macro trendline support.
NDX long term trendline make or break support lies at 15,300. We expect a break in later Q1 but if broken now it will bring forward a negative risk cycle.
Our macro 10yr yield rise to the 2%+ region for a top correlated with a peak in the equity cycle in late Q1. Rate sensitive ration undercurrents.


Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The performance of EM rates this year should be driven primarily by the behavior of US rates and domestic monetary policy, with fiscal policy playing less of a role.</li>
<li>Among the outliers in 2021, the moves in Indonesia, Poland, and Hungary were appropriate, but Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer in Brazil though, I like a steepener.</li>
<li>Besides Brazil, I like steepening trades in Russia, Czechia, and Colombia as curves should bull-steepen this year. Another one to track this year with a similar idea is Chile.</li>
</ul>


The performance of EM rates this year should be driven primarily by the behavior of US rates and domestic monetary policy, with fiscal policy playing less of a role.
Among the outliers in 2021, the moves in Indonesia, Poland, and Hungary were appropriate, but Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer in Brazil though, I like a steepener.
Besides Brazil, I like steepening trades in Russia, Czechia, and Colombia as curves should bull-steepen this year. Another one to track this year with a similar idea is Chile.


Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.</li>
<li>These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.</li>
<li>This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.
These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.
This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.


Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Value Rotation Is Here Again

A tough start, the new year has not started very well, especially for some asset classes.In the first days of the year, the 10-Year Treasury Yield...

Market Radar

Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX...

Thomas Schroeder

Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

Among the outliers in 2021, Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer though, I like a curve steepening trade in Brazil as I do in...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)