Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite strong jobs data, the yield curve has inverted once again. This inversion is driven by delay in rate cut expectations.</li>
<li>Encouraging PCE data which showed inflation easing to 2.2% (lowest since 2021 &amp; close to Fed's target), the likelihood of a cumulative 50 bps cut has steadily risen.</li>
<li>Soft landing reduces urgency for aggressive rate cuts, giving the Fed more flexibility to monitor the effects of previous rate hikes and to lower rates more gradually.</li>
</ul>


Despite strong jobs data, the yield curve has inverted once again. This inversion is driven by delay in rate cut expectations.
Encouraging PCE data which showed inflation easing to 2.2% (lowest since 2021 &amp; close to Fed's target), the likelihood of a cumulative 50 bps cut has steadily risen.
Soft landing reduces urgency for aggressive rate cuts, giving the Fed more flexibility to monitor the effects of previous rate hikes and to lower rates more gradually.


Yield Curve Reinverts On Rising Soft Landing Expectations

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot.</li><li>Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation report either.</li><li>It is once again shelter and transportation that are standing in the way of a soft US CPI print.</li></ul>

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot.Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation report either.It is once again shelter and transportation that are standing in the way of a soft US CPI print.

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race.</li><li>President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most predictable thing in a completely unpredictable race so far.</li><li>Now, as we discussed  yesterday, Kamala Harris is entering the race as an underdog, but a Trump landslide in November is far from a foregone conclusion.</li></ul>

Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race.President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most predictable thing in a completely unpredictable race so far.Now, as we discussed  yesterday, Kamala Harris is entering the race as an underdog, but a Trump landslide in November is far from a foregone conclusion.

Great Game – 5 Things I Expect from Kamalanomics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

<ul><li>It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest ISM report in years.</li><li>The percentage of respondents reporting higher New Orders has weakened to levels only seen during the GFC.</li><li>So, is it time to buy puts and canned food and head for the cellars?</li></ul>

It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest ISM report in years.The percentage of respondents reporting higher New Orders has weakened to levels only seen during the GFC.So, is it time to buy puts and canned food and head for the cellars?

Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Yield Curve Reinverts On Rising Soft Landing Expectations

Despite strong jobs data, yield curve has inverted again on delayed rate cut expectations. Encouraging PCE data suggests a cumulative 50 bps cut...

Mint Finance

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot. Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation...

Steno Research

Great Game – 5 Things I Expect from Kamalanomics

Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race. President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most...

Steno Research

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons

It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yield Curve Reinverts On Rising Soft Landing Expectations

​Despite strong jobs data, yield curve has inverted again on delayed rate cut expectations. Encouraging PCE data suggests a cumulative 50 bps cut...

Mint Finance

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot. Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation...

Steno Research

Great Game – 5 Things I Expect from Kamalanomics

Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race. President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most...

Steno Research

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons

It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest...

Steno Research

Despite strong jobs data, yield curve has inverted again on delayed rate cut expectations. Encouraging PCE data suggests a cumulative 50 bps cut...