Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-treasury" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22878:1">US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT)</a> has continued to see a weaker yield trend even in the face of equity risk on cycles and that screams slower growth. In this chart we outline compelling pressure points that show risk of brief break of the 1.40% macro triple low ahead of a recovery into the summer toward 2%. It is the bear pressure in late 2020 and 2021 that exhibits a stronger cycle to break these key lows of 1.35/1.40% on the 10yr.The 5yr yield always leads the 10yr cycle and just test 1.35% (the equivalent of 10yr 1.45%) in a traditional lead cycle. Bear pressure yield is mounting. A 5yr yield move below 1.30/28% would represent a break that would lead the 10yr.This will eventually play a bigger role in the FX market and the shape of risk in late 2020/2021.

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT) has continued to see a weaker yield trend even in the face of equity risk on cycles and that screams slower growth. In this chart we outline compelling pressure points that show risk of brief break of the 1.40% macro triple low ahead of a recovery into the summer toward 2%. It is the bear pressure in late 2020 and 2021 that exhibits a stronger cycle to break these key lows of 1.35/1.40% on the 10yr.The 5yr yield always leads the 10yr cycle and just test 1.35% (the equivalent of 10yr 1.45%) in a traditional lead cycle. Bear pressure yield is mounting. A 5yr yield move below 1.30/28% would represent a break that would lead the 10yr.This will eventually play a bigger role in the FX market and the shape of risk in late 2020/2021.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/top-short-triggers-in-asia-for-a-q1-pullback" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35987">Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback</a> on January 21 as we moved into a late January cycle peak and harder downturn call/cycle. Risk triggers and shorts were outlined in China, HSI, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and SPX for a harder February down cycle. China's bearish MACD triangulation was at the forefront of this bear scenario.AUD/JPY, NDX, SPX, India, EWY (Korea ETF) and Europe are spaces that show better risk to reward for shorts today assuming we get a mild uptick and head south again.USD/JPY may not hold up much long and vulnerable below that big wedge support breach level at 109.70 with 106.80 eyed.US 10yr yields are also breaking critical support.

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback on January 21 as we moved into a late January cycle peak and harder downturn call/cycle. Risk triggers and shorts were outlined in China, HSI, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and SPX for a harder February down cycle. China's bearish MACD triangulation was at the forefront of this bear scenario.AUD/JPY, NDX, SPX, India, EWY (Korea ETF) and Europe are spaces that show better risk to reward for shorts today assuming we get a mild uptick and head south again.USD/JPY may not hold up much long and vulnerable below that big wedge support breach level at 109.70 with 106.80 eyed.US 10yr yields are also breaking critical support.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk On</li>
<li>Global Liquidity rebound continues GLI 57.0 index (range 0-100)</li>
<li>US Fed’s QE4 sees balance sheet growing 23% (ann.) clip. Set for US$5 trillion</li>
<li>Treasury Bonds look high risk and US dollar near to its peak. Is this 1987?</li>
<li>China’s PBoC is boxed-in and prevented from easing</li>
</ul>


Risk On
Global Liquidity rebound continues GLI 57.0 index (range 0-100)
US Fed’s QE4 sees balance sheet growing 23% (ann.) clip. Set for US$5 trillion
Treasury Bonds look high risk and US dollar near to its peak. Is this 1987?
China’s PBoC is boxed-in and prevented from easing


The 2020 Outlook: Trump’s Coming Landslide?

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

As we pointed out in the last newsletter, the majority conservative party in the UK parliament implies an almost certain Brexit in January 2020. The win is not a surprise but it does remove headline risk, in our view. While this should bring to an end to the three and a-half year long UK parliament flux, investors may bear in-mind that 'life after Brexit' is not less challenging. We expect the UK to embark on a journey to form new trade relationships across the world. In a rather weak global economic environment, this may not be easy.

As we pointed out in the last newsletter, the majority conservative party in the UK parliament implies an almost certain Brexit in January 2020. The win is not a surprise but it does remove headline risk, in our view. While this should bring to an end to the three and a-half year long UK parliament flux, investors may bear in-mind that 'life after Brexit' is not less challenging. We expect the UK to embark on a journey to form new trade relationships across the world. In a rather weak global economic environment, this may not be easy.

Bondcritic Market Monitor (16-Dec): 2019 Coming to an End

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

US 10yr Yield Pressuring Macro Lows

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT) has continued to see a weaker yield trend even in the face of equity risk on cycles and that screams slower...

Thomas Schroeder

Where One Can Add to Shorts Today

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US...

Vermilion Research

The 2020 Outlook: Trump’s Coming Landslide?

Risk On Global Liquidity rebound continues GLI 57.0 index (range 0-100) US Fed’s QE4 sees balance sheet growing 23% (ann.) clip. Set for US$5...

Michael J. Howell

Bondcritic Market Monitor (16-Dec): 2019 Coming to an End

As we pointed out in the last newsletter, the majority conservative party in the UK parliament implies an almost certain Brexit in January 2020....

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)