External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>UNTR posted in-line FY23 net profit of Rp20.6tr (96%/ 104% of our/ cons. forecast) </li><li>4Q23 earnings improved to Rp5.3tr (+3% yoy/ +27% qoq) but was mainly driven by stronger coking coal and gold prices.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-25F est. and Hold rating with unchanged SOTPbased TP of Rp24,900 amid our view of further coal price correction.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UNTR posted in-line FY23 net profit of Rp20.6tr (96%/ 104% of our/ cons. forecast) 4Q23 earnings improved to Rp5.3tr (+3% yoy/ +27% qoq) but was mainly driven by stronger coking coal and gold prices.We maintain our FY24-25F est. and Hold rating with unchanged SOTPbased TP of Rp24,900 amid our view of further coal price correction.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United Tractors - In-Line FY23 Net Profit

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> announced a buyback of up to 5 trillion rupiah, buying back "up to 20% of shares out."  </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/united-tractors-untr-ij-buyback-sure-to-be-impactful" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72838" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful</a> I said the buyback would be smaller than the headlines, but still likely quite impactful. </li>
<li>On Day 1, shares rose 5% to IDR 28,275. Since then the stock is up an additional 22%. Now we have a month left. There may be more juice still. </li>
</ul>


In mid-July, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a buyback of up to 5 trillion rupiah, buying back "up to 20% of shares out."  
In United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful I said the buyback would be smaller than the headlines, but still likely quite impactful. 
On Day 1, shares rose 5% to IDR 28,275. Since then the stock is up an additional 22%. Now we have a month left. There may be more juice still. 


United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - One Month To Go

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> announced a large share buyback. It's a big buyback but perhaps not as big as the headlines (which say "up to 20%"). </li>
<li>The buyback is for 5 trillion rupiah which is about 5% of market cap, and will be conducted on-market over the next three months.</li>
<li>Looking at the early market reaction, my opinion is that the market does not seem to understand the consequences.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a large share buyback. It's a big buyback but perhaps not as big as the headlines (which say "up to 20%"). 
The buyback is for 5 trillion rupiah which is about 5% of market cap, and will be conducted on-market over the next three months.
Looking at the early market reaction, my opinion is that the market does not seem to understand the consequences.


United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful

<ul><li>Given the management’s latest FY24 guidance and our view of continued coal price normalization in FY24-25F, we forecast UNTR’s earnings to peak in FY23 with earnings then projected to decline across all segments.</li><li>We reinstate our coverage with a HOLD rating and DCF-based TP of Rp24,900.</li><li>During the management call with analysts, UNTR unveiled a soft set of numbers for its FY24 operational guidance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the management’s latest FY24 guidance and our view of continued coal price normalization in FY24-25F, we forecast UNTR’s earnings to peak in FY23 with earnings then projected to decline across all segments.We reinstate our coverage with a HOLD rating and DCF-based TP of Rp24,900.During the management call with analysts, UNTR unveiled a soft set of numbers for its FY24 operational guidance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United Tractors - Expect Earnings Peak in FY23 on Softer FY24 Outlook

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a> announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.</li>
<li>The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.</li>
<li>Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 


Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

Indonesia

PT United Tractors Tbk distributes and leases construction machinery including Komatsu, Nissan Diesel, Scania, Bomag, Valmet, and Tadano brands.  The Company also provides contract mining services, and trades and assembles heavy equipment.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ)

United Tractors - In-Line FY23 Net Profit

We maintain our FY24-25F est. and Hold rating with unchanged SOTPbased TP of Rp24,900 amid our view of further coal price correction.

BRI Danareksa Research