Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Technology dominates global active portfolios, with 8 of the 11 most widely held stocks coming from the sector.</li>
<li>TSMC hits record ownership at 65.7% of funds, becoming the second most widely held stock globally.</li>
<li>Broadcom, Tencent and Alibaba see rising adoption, while Novo Nordisk and UnitedHealth face sharp ownership declines.</li>
</ul>


Technology dominates global active portfolios, with 8 of the 11 most widely held stocks coming from the sector.
TSMC hits record ownership at 65.7% of funds, becoming the second most widely held stock globally.
Broadcom, Tencent and Alibaba see rising adoption, while Novo Nordisk and UnitedHealth face sharp ownership declines.


Global Stock Positioning: Tech Dominance, China Rotation, and Record TSMC Ownership

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways with the resistance at 1,364/1,370 points and the support at 1,346/1,340 points.</li><li>KTX expects China's 4Q24 GDP to show signs of recovery, with consensus estimating GDP growth of 5.0% YoY and 1.6% QoQ (compared to 4.6% YoY and 0.9% QoQ in 3Q24).</li><li>The Easy e-Receipt 2.0 tax reduction measure (from January 16 to February 28, 2025) is expected to generate cash flow of Bt70bn and boost the economy by approximately 0.38%, benefiting the commerce sector.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways with the resistance at 1,364/1,370 points and the support at 1,346/1,340 points.KTX expects China's 4Q24 GDP to show signs of recovery, with consensus estimating GDP growth of 5.0% YoY and 1.6% QoQ (compared to 4.6% YoY and 0.9% QoQ in 3Q24).The Easy e-Receipt 2.0 tax reduction measure (from January 16 to February 28, 2025) is expected to generate cash flow of Bt70bn and boost the economy by approximately 0.38%, benefiting the commerce sector.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,457/1,462/1,471 points and the support at 1,441 points (10-day EMA)/1,437 points (open gap).</li><li>Weekly investment strategy: we recommend selling when the index gains to take profit and waiting to buy back at the 1,433-point support.</li><li>Internal risks are beginning to ease, as the decline in the SET's 12M FWD EPS estimate shows signs of stabilization (+0.1% WoW) after a series of drops to new lows for 2024, following the weaker-than-expected 3Q24 earnings results.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,457/1,462/1,471 points and the support at 1,441 points (10-day EMA)/1,437 points (open gap).Weekly investment strategy: we recommend selling when the index gains to take profit and waiting to buy back at the 1,433-point support.Internal risks are beginning to ease, as the decline in the SET's 12M FWD EPS estimate shows signs of stabilization (+0.1% WoW) after a series of drops to new lows for 2024, following the weaker-than-expected 3Q24 earnings results.

Weekly Strategy & Chinese Inflation in November

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)</li><li>Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.</li><li>This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.</li></ul>

The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

United States

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated owns and manages organized health systems. The Company provides employers products and resources to plan and administer employee benefit programs. UnitedHealth serves customers worldwide.

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UnitedHealth Group (UNH UN)

Global Stock Positioning: Tech Dominance, China Rotation, and Record TSMC Ownership

Technology continues to anchor global active portfolios, with TSMC at record ownership. Rotation persists across regions as managers selectively...

Steven Holden

China's Retail Sales and 4Q24 GDP

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways with the resistance at 1,364/1,370 points and the support at 1,346/1,340 points. KTX...

Krungthai XSpring

Weekly Strategy & Chinese Inflation in November

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,457/1,462/1,471 points and the support at 1,441 points (10-day...

Krungthai XSpring

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022. This article is a repeat of...

Value Investing

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

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