Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.
The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.
A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>'s delisting has been one of the hot topics for the last couple of weeks given it approached the timeline for the reverse book building issue that was approved by its shareholders. However, the delisting event has deemed to have been failed according to the announcement filed by the company on October 10th. As a result, the stock had crashed by over 20% on Monday.This insight does not engage in the technicalities of the delisting, but rather we try to dwell on the increasing visibility of the shareholder activism in the country, one of the factors opposing the delisting in the first place.

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)'s delisting has been one of the hot topics for the last couple of weeks given it approached the timeline for the reverse book building issue that was approved by its shareholders. However, the delisting event has deemed to have been failed according to the announcement filed by the company on October 10th. As a result, the stock had crashed by over 20% on Monday.This insight does not engage in the technicalities of the delisting, but rather we try to dwell on the increasing visibility of the shareholder activism in the country, one of the factors opposing the delisting in the first place.

Vedanta Delisting Failure: The Upsurge of Shareholder Activism in India?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The COVID-19 crisis in India is surmounting as the number of tests and positive cases each day are reaching new highs while the peak has not reached yet, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/covid-19-how-does-india-fare-currently" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38227" rel="noopener">COVID-19: How Does India Fare Currently?</a> Unsurprisingly, the government has extended the nation-wide lockdown to a further 19 days till May 3rd. While the extension was anticipated by many, the government has also decided to free up some economic activities post 20th April, subject to certain criteria (the guideline is embedded in the insight). Post the extension announcement, the government had segregated 700+ districts into hotspots, non-hotspots and green zones; it is green zones are where certain economic activities will resume on 20th April. In this insight, we try to decipher the possible beneficiaries arising from this 'free-up'

The COVID-19 crisis in India is surmounting as the number of tests and positive cases each day are reaching new highs while the peak has not reached yet, as discussed in COVID-19: How Does India Fare Currently? Unsurprisingly, the government has extended the nation-wide lockdown to a further 19 days till May 3rd. While the extension was anticipated by many, the government has also decided to free up some economic activities post 20th April, subject to certain criteria (the guideline is embedded in the insight). Post the extension announcement, the government had segregated 700+ districts into hotspots, non-hotspots and green zones; it is green zones are where certain economic activities will resume on 20th April. In this insight, we try to decipher the possible beneficiaries arising from this 'free-up'

COVID-19 : Intermediate Respite for Some Businesses

<ul>
<li>There could be 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 74.6% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 180bn (US$1.9bn).</li>
<li>There is a huge sector mismatch with Industrials and Utilities stocks expected to net gain 4 spots each while Financials are expected to lose 9 index spots.</li>
</ul>


There could be 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 74.6% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 180bn (US$1.9bn).
There is a huge sector mismatch with Industrials and Utilities stocks expected to net gain 4 spots each while Financials are expected to lose 9 index spots.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 75% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

India

UPL Limited is an Indian multinational agrochemical and specialty chemicals company that manufactures and markets a comprehensive range of sustainable agriculture products and solutions. These include conventional crop protection products like pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, and insecticides, as well as seeds, bio-solutions, and post-harvest solutions. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on May 29, 1969.

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UPL (UPLL IN)

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

The evidence continues to suggest that value remains leadership and we recommend adding exposure to cyclical value on this minor pullback in the...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

The deletes have outperformed the adds by 4.7% since the announcement of the changes. The passives trade at the close today and those flows could...

Brian Freitas

Vedanta Delisting Failure: The Upsurge of Shareholder Activism in India?

Vedanta's delisting failure has led us to believe that shareholder activism, which was once muted, has taken an emerging path in India. We also...

Nitin Mangal

COVID-19 : Intermediate Respite for Some Businesses

The COVID-19 crisis in India is surmounting as the number of tests and positive cases each day are reaching new highs while the peak has not...

Nitin Mangal

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 75% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 22 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 74.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 180bn (US$1.9bn). The...

Brian Freitas

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