Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains. </li>
<li>The situation is also re-emphasising the spotlight on the future role of nuclear energy in the power grids. </li>
<li>Uranium prices are up 44% since the invasion began, with the price for nuclear fuel at a decade high.</li>
</ul>


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains. 
The situation is also re-emphasising the spotlight on the future role of nuclear energy in the power grids. 
Uranium prices are up 44% since the invasion began, with the price for nuclear fuel at a decade high.


Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Commodities

Our September cyclical commodity sentiment review highlights notable divergence in the commodity space, with potential over-exuberance seen in copper and platinum; early signs of positive change seen in corn via US farmer sentiment; an accelerating slide for crude oil sentiment towards negative territory; and weak showings for uranium and mineral sands.  We discuss recent catalysts picked up via text mining for our core cyclical commodity sentiment indicators below.
For an introduction to TMI's methodology &amp; use cases, please take a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/introducing-tmi-data-science-delivering-alpha-with-custom-nlp-based-leading-indicators" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42826" rel="noopener">Introducing TMI Data Science: Delivering Alpha With Custom NLP-Based Leading Indicators</a>

Our September cyclical commodity sentiment review highlights notable divergence in the commodity space, with potential over-exuberance seen in copper and platinum; early signs of positive change seen in corn via US farmer sentiment; an accelerating slide for crude oil sentiment towards negative territory; and weak showings for uranium and mineral sands.  We discuss recent catalysts picked up via text mining for our core cyclical commodity sentiment indicators below.
For an introduction to TMI's methodology &amp; use cases, please take a look at Introducing TMI Data Science: Delivering Alpha With Custom NLP-Based Leading Indicators

TMI Indicators: Cyclical Commodity Sentiment Review

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (Spot) raised $200 million, causing a surge in uranium stocks.</li><li>Spot's ability to add more pounds of uranium depends on trading above NAV, which it achieved with recent raises.</li><li>The market dynamics in uranium are unique, with financial players influencing the market in unexpected ways.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (Spot) raised $200 million, causing a surge in uranium stocks.Spot's ability to add more pounds of uranium depends on trading above NAV, which it achieved with recent raises.The market dynamics in uranium are unique, with financial players influencing the market in unexpected ways.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Uranium Goes Vertical. Overblown or Only the Beginning?

<ul><li>The conversation focuses on the current state of the uranium market, with a emphasis on short interest and sentiment towards uranium stocks.</li><li>Guy discusses the reasons behind the consensus short uranium position among hedge funds, and how it originated from thematic responses and shifts in the market.</li><li>Despite the negative sentiment and high short interest, Guy remains optimistic about the potential for a sentiment shift in the uranium market.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The conversation focuses on the current state of the uranium market, with a emphasis on short interest and sentiment towards uranium stocks.Guy discusses the reasons behind the consensus short uranium position among hedge funds, and how it originated from thematic responses and shifts in the market.Despite the negative sentiment and high short interest, Guy remains optimistic about the potential for a sentiment shift in the uranium market.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Why the uranium shorts are wrong (Guy Keller interview)

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Uranium (UXA COMDTY)

Uranium: Fuelling Fears

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains....

David Blennerhassett

TMI Indicators: Cyclical Commodity Sentiment Review

Our NLP-based cyclical commodity sentiment review seeks to quantify

Elan Gore

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Uranium Goes Vertical. Overblown or Only the Beginning?

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust raises $200 million, boosting stock prices for uranium mining companies and the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF, with...

Money of Mine

Why the uranium shorts are wrong (Guy Keller interview)

Guy Keller remains positive about the long-term narrative of uranium despite the current short interest and hesitation from generalists, noting...

Money of Mine

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