Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. <a href="https://www.isl.org/en/news/rwi-isl-container-throughput-index-reaches-new-heights" target="_blank">The RWI/ISL container throughput index</a> is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. The RWI/ISL container throughput index is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

The St.Louis Fed's financial stress index is a key one-stop guide to the level of angst in financial markets. The latest data show the weekly index falling back to a hairs-breadth of its all-time low reached in mid-2014. The index is expressed in terms of standard deviations versus 'normal' which is effectively the long-run (back to the early 1990s) average for the inputs of the underlying series. The latest reading shows that index at -1.6 standard deviations below normal. The index has only…

The St.Louis Fed's financial stress index is a key one-stop guide to the level of angst in financial markets. The latest data show the weekly index falling back to a hairs-breadth of its all-time low reached in mid-2014. The index is expressed in terms of standard deviations versus 'normal' which is effectively the long-run (back to the early 1990s) average for the inputs of the underlying series. The latest reading shows that index at -1.6 standard deviations below normal. The index has only…

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

The Fed began explicitly targeting 2% inflation, as measured by the year-over-year change in overall PCE prices, in 2012.  However, 2% has long been the inflation rate Fed officials associated with their Congressionally-mandated objective of price stability and, therefore, 2% had already been an implicit target.  For example, at the July 1996 FOMC meeting, policymakers had an extensive discussion about price stability and inflation goals.  Then-Governor Janet Yellen asked Chairman Alan Greenspan…

The Fed began explicitly targeting 2% inflation, as measured by the year-over-year change in overall PCE prices, in 2012.  However, 2% has long been the inflation rate Fed officials associated with their Congressionally-mandated objective of price stability and, therefore, 2% had already been an implicit target.  For example, at the July 1996 FOMC meeting, policymakers had an extensive discussion about price stability and inflation goals.  Then-Governor Janet Yellen asked Chairman Alan Greenspan…

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

The weak greenback will continue to prolong the Emerging Market rally, helped by obligatory buying of Chinese equities as investors respond to the (small) inclusion of A-shares in the MSCI indices, keeping China liquid until the November leadership transition. We started the year with a contrarian call for last year's Euro-weakness to end (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-return-of-inflation-why-the-days-of-euro-weakness-are-numbered" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8006">The Return of Inflation: Why the Days of Euro Weakness Are Numbered</a>), and the Eurozone inflation data steadily reinforced our conviction. Ironically…

The weak greenback will continue to prolong the Emerging Market rally, helped by obligatory buying of Chinese equities as investors respond to the (small) inclusion of A-shares in the MSCI indices, keeping China liquid until the November leadership transition. We started the year with a contrarian call for last year's Euro-weakness to end (The Return of Inflation: Why the Days of Euro Weakness Are Numbered), and the Eurozone inflation data steadily reinforced our conviction. Ironically…

Draghi's Talk Of "Reflationary Forces" Reinforces Trend Strength in Euro Amid Flatter US Yield Curve

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

US Breakeven 10 Year / Technical Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/026/705/original/BBSP%2010US%20Breakeven.JPG?1495693121" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="26705"></figure>Access to this document is restricted to the use of the intended recipient designated by BBSP and may not be shared with others. Any unauthorised use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this document, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited. This document is provided solely for information purposes. Under no circumstances is the information contained or referred to herein to be relied upon as constituting personal investment advice or construed as any offer or solicitation to buy or…

Access to this document is restricted to the use of the intended recipient designated by BBSP and may not be shared with others. Any unauthorised use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this document, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited. This document is provided solely for information purposes. Under no circumstances is the information contained or referred to herein to be relied upon as constituting personal investment advice or construed as any offer or solicitation to buy or…

10US Breakeven - New Bullish Impulse in the Pipeline

US Breakeven 10 Year (USGGBE10 INDEX)

Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable...

Richard Iley

US: Feeling Relaxed? Markets Are.......

The St.Louis Fed's financial stress index is a key one-stop guide to the level of angst in financial markets. The latest data show the weekly index...

Richard Iley

Raising the Fed's 2% Inflation Target

The Fed began explicitly targeting 2% inflation, as measured by the year-over-year change in overall PCE prices, in 2012. However, 2% has long...

RDQ Economics

Draghi's Talk Of "Reflationary Forces" Reinforces Trend Strength in Euro Amid Flatter US Yield Curve

The weak greenback will continue to prolong the Emerging Market rally, helped by obligatory buying of Chinese equities as investors respond to the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

10US Breakeven - New Bullish Impulse in the Pipeline

Access to this document is restricted to the use of the intended recipient designated by BBSP and may not be shared with others. Any unauthorised...

BBSP Asia