Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
​
Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
​
The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

As the Trump Administration continues to up the protectionist ante with the threat of a additional tariffs on another $200 billion of U.S. imports from China, the assessments of macroeconomic effects appear to be primarily on growth impacts.  For example, the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that policymakers "noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have…

As the Trump Administration continues to up the protectionist ante with the threat of a additional tariffs on another $200 billion of U.S. imports from China, the assessments of macroeconomic effects appear to be primarily on growth impacts.  For example, the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that policymakers "noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have…

June PPI Shows Tariffs Pushing Up U.S. Costs

Core CPI prices rose 0.1% in April, below expectations, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate held steady at 2.1%. Owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% and rent of primary residence increased 0.4%, while medical care prices rose only 0.1%, new vehicle prices were fell 0.5%, and airfares plunged 2.7%.  Overall CPI prices rose 0.2% in April with energy prices up 1.4% and food prices up 0.3%.  The 12-month headline inflation rate picked up to 2.5% from 2.4%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/051/936/original/051018cht1.png?1525957857" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="51936"></figure>BOTTOM LINE:  The April CPI report…

Core CPI prices rose 0.1% in April, below expectations, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate held steady at 2.1%. Owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% and rent of primary residence increased 0.4%, while medical care prices rose only 0.1%, new vehicle prices were fell 0.5%, and airfares plunged 2.7%.  Overall CPI prices rose 0.2% in April with energy prices up 1.4% and food prices up 0.3%.  The 12-month headline inflation rate picked up to 2.5% from 2.4%.BOTTOM LINE:  The April CPI report…

April U.S. CPI Lower Than Forecasts But A Modest Overshoot Of The Fed's 2% Target Still Likely In Q2

This week brought both positive and negative signals on U.S. economic policy.  On the positive side, the shift to a less economist-centric Fed Board of Governors appears to have led to an improvement in monetary policy communications.  For example, Fed Governor Quarles—after saying last week that “a deviation from our target of a few tenths of 1 percentage point, especially one I expect to fade, does not cause me great concern”—said at an economic policy conference this week that recent…

This week brought both positive and negative signals on U.S. economic policy.  On the positive side, the shift to a less economist-centric Fed Board of Governors appears to have led to an improvement in monetary policy communications.  For example, Fed Governor Quarles—after saying last week that “a deviation from our target of a few tenths of 1 percentage point, especially one I expect to fade, does not cause me great concern”—said at an economic policy conference this week that recent…

Trump’s Ill-Advised Tariffs Should Lift Inflation

Heading into the November U.S. CPI report, there were some rumblings on the inflation front.  For example, finished goods PPI prices continued to pick up in November and the share of small firms reporting that they were raising prices rose to the highest net percentage in over three years.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/040/429/original/121317acht1.png?1513174299" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="40429"></figure><div class="content-remarks">Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Federation of Independent Business</div>However, core CPI prices (i.e., excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1% in November, which lowered the year-over-year core CPI…

Heading into the November U.S. CPI report, there were some rumblings on the inflation front.  For example, finished goods PPI prices continued to pick up in November and the share of small firms reporting that they were raising prices rose to the highest net percentage in over three years.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Federation of Independent BusinessHowever, core CPI prices (i.e., excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1% in November, which lowered the year-over-year core CPI…

November U.S. Core CPI Fails To Follow Through

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Breakeven 10 Year / Technical Analysis

A series of charts on US growth and inflation numbers that we are planning will shed some light on our bullish yield scenario for 2018 and one that could surprise markets. A sharp move higher in bond yields will have a profound impact on emerging markets and European equities but will it lift the USD out of the doldrums?Here we look at US core CPI ex food and energy and note a cycle low is at hand with a tilt to drive higher toward the highs in 2012 and 2016 with a bigger pattern resistance at…

A series of charts on US growth and inflation numbers that we are planning will shed some light on our bullish yield scenario for 2018 and one that could surprise markets. A sharp move higher in bond yields will have a profound impact on emerging markets and European equities but will it lift the USD out of the doldrums?Here we look at US core CPI ex food and energy and note a cycle low is at hand with a tilt to drive higher toward the highs in 2012 and 2016 with a bigger pattern resistance at…

US Inflation Brewing to Spur Our Bullish Yield Thesis

US Breakeven 10 Year (USGGBE10 INDEX)

June PPI Shows Tariffs Pushing Up U.S. Costs

As the Trump Administration continues to up the protectionist ante with the threat of a additional tariffs on another $200 billion of U.S. imports...

RDQ Economics

April U.S. CPI Lower Than Forecasts But A Modest Overshoot Of The Fed's 2% Target Still Likely In Q2

Core CPI prices rose 0.1% in April, below expectations, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate held steady at 2.1%. Owners’ equivalent rent...

RDQ Economics

Trump’s Ill-Advised Tariffs Should Lift Inflation

This week brought both positive and negative signals on U.S. economic policy. On the positive side, the shift to a less economist-centric Fed...

RDQ Economics

November U.S. Core CPI Fails To Follow Through

Heading into the November U.S. CPI report, there were some rumblings on the inflation front. For example, finished goods PPI prices continued to...

RDQ Economics

US Inflation Brewing to Spur Our Bullish Yield Thesis

A series of charts on US growth and inflation numbers that we are planning will shed some light on our bullish yield scenario for 2018 and one that...

Thomas Schroeder