Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Discrepancies between establishment and household job surveys highlight economic stress; full-time employment declines, indicating households remain stressed even as non-farm payrolls rise.</li>
<li>Subsequent bond yield movements, particularly the persistent inversion of the 30Y-2Y spread, reflect investor skepticism about long-term economic stability and delayed rate cuts.</li>
<li>Upcoming U.S. elections and this week's economic reports, including the May CPI and revised Federal Reserve projections, may push rate cut expectations even further ahead.</li>
</ul>


Discrepancies between establishment and household job surveys highlight economic stress; full-time employment declines, indicating households remain stressed even as non-farm payrolls rise.
Subsequent bond yield movements, particularly the persistent inversion of the 30Y-2Y spread, reflect investor skepticism about long-term economic stability and delayed rate cuts.
Upcoming U.S. elections and this week's economic reports, including the May CPI and revised Federal Reserve projections, may push rate cut expectations even further ahead.


Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Fed's decision to taper its balance sheet runoff has provided support to long-term treasuries, particularly 10-year notes, signaling a potential rise in demand and a move towards yield curve normalization.</li>
<li>Recent treasury auction results reflect a divergence in demand across maturities; long-term 10-year treasuries show weaker performance compared to strong showings in shorter 3-year and 5-year maturities.</li>
<li>Data-Dependent Fed is likely to be influenced by improving economic indicators, supporting a normalization of the yield curve. During normalization, the 10Y-2Y spread is the superior instrument for exposure. </li>
</ul>


Fed's decision to taper its balance sheet runoff has provided support to long-term treasuries, particularly 10-year notes, signaling a potential rise in demand and a move towards yield curve normalization.
Recent treasury auction results reflect a divergence in demand across maturities; long-term 10-year treasuries show weaker performance compared to strong showings in shorter 3-year and 5-year maturities.
Data-Dependent Fed is likely to be influenced by improving economic indicators, supporting a normalization of the yield curve. During normalization, the 10Y-2Y spread is the superior instrument for exposure. 


Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors.</li><li>Powell’s remarks from yesterday confirmed fears of the Fed deviating from their promised rate cuts back in December, and the question will now be, whether they will cut rates at all.</li><li>A pivot from a pivot is tough, but it might be exactly what’s going to happen.</li></ul>

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors.Powell’s remarks from yesterday confirmed fears of the Fed deviating from their promised rate cuts back in December, and the question will now be, whether they will cut rates at all.A pivot from a pivot is tough, but it might be exactly what’s going to happen.

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in commodity-intensive emerging markets.</li><li>They promptly felt the impact of rising prices on their domestic products.</li><li>We had also predicted that these same emerging markets would be the first to identify the subsequent disinflation wave we’ve observed in 2023.</li></ul>

The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in commodity-intensive emerging markets.They promptly felt the impact of rising prices on their domestic products.We had also predicted that these same emerging markets would be the first to identify the subsequent disinflation wave we’ve observed in 2023.

Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.</li><li>The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.</li><li>It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

United States

Legacy Government (Sovereign) Generic Index-key ticker

US 2Y (USGG2YR INDEX)

Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Mint Finance

Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

Fed's tapering decision boosts long-term treasuries, signaling potential yield curve normalization with stronger demand for 10-year notes.

Mint Finance

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors. Powell’s remarks...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity

The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch. The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few...

Steno Research

Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk

​Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Mint Finance

Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve Normalisation

​Fed's tapering decision boosts long-term treasuries, signaling potential yield curve normalization with stronger demand for 10-year notes.

Mint Finance

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors. Powell’s remarks...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity

The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch. The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few...

Steno Research

Discrepancies in job surveys show economic stress, full-time employment drops despite rising payrolls. Bond yield inversion signals investor doubt...

Fed's tapering decision boosts long-term treasuries, signaling potential yield curve normalization with stronger demand for 10-year notes.