Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

This quick note is a follow up to the one sent on 28 October titled “Bond Market Squeeze is not over” where it was suggested that the Long Bond Future could bounce to 163.That target has been met - Friday’s high being 163.04/32.Momentum is now stretched, and resistance levels sit just overhead. It is therefore best to step back from any long Bond positions and wait for further signals.

This quick note is a follow up to the one sent on 28 October titled “Bond Market Squeeze is not over” where it was suggested that the Long Bond Future could bounce to 163.That target has been met - Friday’s high being 163.04/32.Momentum is now stretched, and resistance levels sit just overhead. It is therefore best to step back from any long Bond positions and wait for further signals.

The overnight rise in bond prices has confirmed a short-term break.
It suggests that we may effectively see a repeat of the past 4 sessions – a sharp rise in the Long Bond and a quick fall in long end yields (30Y).
At this juncture it appears to be a short term adjustments in markets rather than anything more concerning.
However, as breakevens remain elevated, real yields are likely to make fresh all-time lows. As highlighted earlier this week, watch out for a breach of support on US 30Y TIPS yields at minus 50 bps. The all-time low on US 10Y TIPS yield was minus 122 bps and is back in sight.
With this in mind, and when coupled with the slip in Bictoin and a still vulnerable looking USD, we must prepare for the possibility of a breakout in Gold through $1,834.

The overnight rise in bond prices has confirmed a short-term break.
It suggests that we may effectively see a repeat of the past 4 sessions – a sharp rise in the Long Bond and a quick fall in long end yields (30Y).
At this juncture it appears to be a short term adjustments in markets rather than anything more concerning.
However, as breakevens remain elevated, real yields are likely to make fresh all-time lows. As highlighted earlier this week, watch out for a breach of support on US 30Y TIPS yields at minus 50 bps. The all-time low on US 10Y TIPS yield was minus 122 bps and is back in sight.
With this in mind, and when coupled with the slip in Bictoin and a still vulnerable looking USD, we must prepare for the possibility of a breakout in Gold through $1,834.

Cross Asset Strategy

<a target="_blank">Markets across the board appear to be returning to a reflationary stance, especially now that we have finally seen some decent activity in US Treasuries.</a>Considering Oil is making new trend highs and the worse-than-expected data in the US already likely to be behind us, it does appear that the catalysts for a turn in Bonds are in place. US 10Y yield looks likely to make it to 1.70% while 30Y yield to at least 2.26% if not 2.40%+ again.Longer-term charts that look at the US yield curve and estimate how steep it can go. These charts suggest that we could be on verge of a very significant uptrend in yields that takes us far beyond the highs posted earlier this year.

Markets across the board appear to be returning to a reflationary stance, especially now that we have finally seen some decent activity in US Treasuries.Considering Oil is making new trend highs and the worse-than-expected data in the US already likely to be behind us, it does appear that the catalysts for a turn in Bonds are in place. US 10Y yield looks likely to make it to 1.70% while 30Y yield to at least 2.26% if not 2.40%+ again.Longer-term charts that look at the US yield curve and estimate how steep it can go. These charts suggest that we could be on verge of a very significant uptrend in yields that takes us far beyond the highs posted earlier this year. 

The rally in bonds has met its targets and seems to have run its course. Now as we are at very low levels of yield again, it seems unlikely that there is much juice left in this recent trend. Instead of reversing though we believe there is a risk of continued low nominal and real yields which should provide opportunities elsewhere.

The rally in bonds has met its targets and seems to have run its course. Now as we are at very low levels of yield again, it seems unlikely that there is much juice left in this recent trend. Instead of reversing though we believe there is a risk of continued low nominal and real yields which should provide opportunities elsewhere.

US Bonds & Asset Markets: Time for Another Rotation

Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Regular readers will know that a useful comparison has been made about the rally in the Dow Jones since last years low with the rally seen from March 2009 to May 2010.A similar comparison has been made between the S&amp;P 500 / Bonds Ratio over the same periods - see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-equities-time-to-get-defensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51332" rel="noopener">US Equities: Time to Get Defensive</a>These comparisons have so far given good guidance about turning defensive on equities over the past month and bullish on Bonds.In a similar fashion, the chart below compares the trends in the VIX Index with the aftermath of the last crisis 11-12 years ago.The similarities in the levels at work are striking and warn of possible complacency in the market place that could lead to much higher levels of volatility than seems to be generally expected.

Regular readers will know that a useful comparison has been made about the rally in the Dow Jones since last years low with the rally seen from March 2009 to May 2010.A similar comparison has been made between the S&amp;P 500 / Bonds Ratio over the same periods - see US Equities: Time to Get DefensiveThese comparisons have so far given good guidance about turning defensive on equities over the past month and bullish on Bonds.In a similar fashion, the chart below compares the trends in the VIX Index with the aftermath of the last crisis 11-12 years ago.The similarities in the levels at work are striking and warn of possible complacency in the market place that could lead to much higher levels of volatility than seems to be generally expected.

United States

Legacy Government (Sovereign) Generic Index-key ticker

US 30Y (USGG30YR INDEX)

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