Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>We revisit key cross-asset signals as traditional safe havens fail to respond in familiar ways.</li>
<li>The past 8 days have delivered a combination of asset moves with few, if any,  historical parallels.</li>
<li>With trust in U.S. safe haven assets under pressure, we explore emerging themes and ramifications.</li>
</ul>


We revisit key cross-asset signals as traditional safe havens fail to respond in familiar ways.
The past 8 days have delivered a combination of asset moves with few, if any,  historical parallels.
With trust in U.S. safe haven assets under pressure, we explore emerging themes and ramifications.


Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields</li>
<li>As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside </li>
<li>The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields
As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside 
The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields


Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

This quick note is a follow up to the one sent on 28 October titled “Bond Market Squeeze is not over” where it was suggested that the Long Bond Future could bounce to 163.That target has been met - Friday’s high being 163.04/32.Momentum is now stretched, and resistance levels sit just overhead. It is therefore best to step back from any long Bond positions and wait for further signals.

This quick note is a follow up to the one sent on 28 October titled “Bond Market Squeeze is not over” where it was suggested that the Long Bond Future could bounce to 163.That target has been met - Friday’s high being 163.04/32.Momentum is now stretched, and resistance levels sit just overhead. It is therefore best to step back from any long Bond positions and wait for further signals.

The overnight rise in bond prices has confirmed a short-term break.
It suggests that we may effectively see a repeat of the past 4 sessions – a sharp rise in the Long Bond and a quick fall in long end yields (30Y).
At this juncture it appears to be a short term adjustments in markets rather than anything more concerning.
However, as breakevens remain elevated, real yields are likely to make fresh all-time lows. As highlighted earlier this week, watch out for a breach of support on US 30Y TIPS yields at minus 50 bps. The all-time low on US 10Y TIPS yield was minus 122 bps and is back in sight.
With this in mind, and when coupled with the slip in Bictoin and a still vulnerable looking USD, we must prepare for the possibility of a breakout in Gold through $1,834.

The overnight rise in bond prices has confirmed a short-term break.
It suggests that we may effectively see a repeat of the past 4 sessions – a sharp rise in the Long Bond and a quick fall in long end yields (30Y).
At this juncture it appears to be a short term adjustments in markets rather than anything more concerning.
However, as breakevens remain elevated, real yields are likely to make fresh all-time lows. As highlighted earlier this week, watch out for a breach of support on US 30Y TIPS yields at minus 50 bps. The all-time low on US 10Y TIPS yield was minus 122 bps and is back in sight.
With this in mind, and when coupled with the slip in Bictoin and a still vulnerable looking USD, we must prepare for the possibility of a breakout in Gold through $1,834.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Regular readers will know that a useful comparison has been made about the rally in the Dow Jones since last years low with the rally seen from March 2009 to May 2010.A similar comparison has been made between the S&amp;P 500 / Bonds Ratio over the same periods - see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-equities-time-to-get-defensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51332" rel="noopener">US Equities: Time to Get Defensive</a>These comparisons have so far given good guidance about turning defensive on equities over the past month and bullish on Bonds.In a similar fashion, the chart below compares the trends in the VIX Index with the aftermath of the last crisis 11-12 years ago.The similarities in the levels at work are striking and warn of possible complacency in the market place that could lead to much higher levels of volatility than seems to be generally expected.

Regular readers will know that a useful comparison has been made about the rally in the Dow Jones since last years low with the rally seen from March 2009 to May 2010.A similar comparison has been made between the S&amp;P 500 / Bonds Ratio over the same periods - see US Equities: Time to Get DefensiveThese comparisons have so far given good guidance about turning defensive on equities over the past month and bullish on Bonds.In a similar fashion, the chart below compares the trends in the VIX Index with the aftermath of the last crisis 11-12 years ago.The similarities in the levels at work are striking and warn of possible complacency in the market place that could lead to much higher levels of volatility than seems to be generally expected.

United States

Legacy Government (Sovereign) Generic Index-key ticker

US 30Y (USGG30YR INDEX)

Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

Traditional safe havens are not responding as expected, leading to unprecedented asset moves and questioning trust in U.S. safe haven assets.

John Ley

Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

A quick look at the support zone on US 30Y and 10Y yields as we prepare for the FOMC. If anything, a big if, we might be seeing signs of a rise in...

Shyam Devani

Bond Market Squeeze: Target Met

The bounce in Bond prices over the past 2 weeks has met its target and a more neutral stance should be adopted at this juncture

Shyam Devani

Bond Market Squeeze Is Not Over

The squeeze in the bond market still has more to go. Lower real yields, a vulnerable USD and weakness in Bitcoin should conspire to support Gold

Shyam Devani

VIX Index: How Concerned Should We Be?

The signs on the VIX Index not only show a historical similarity to the aftermath of the last crisis but also complement the bearish signs seen on...

Shyam Devani

Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

​Traditional safe havens are not responding as expected, leading to unprecedented asset moves and questioning trust in U.S. safe haven assets.

John Ley

Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

A quick look at the support zone on US 30Y and 10Y yields as we prepare for the FOMC. If anything, a big if, we might be seeing signs of a rise in...

Shyam Devani

Bond Market Squeeze: Target Met

The bounce in Bond prices over the past 2 weeks has met its target and a more neutral stance should be adopted at this juncture

Shyam Devani

Bond Market Squeeze Is Not Over

The squeeze in the bond market still has more to go. Lower real yields, a vulnerable USD and weakness in Bitcoin should conspire to support Gold

Shyam Devani

VIX Index: How Concerned Should We Be?

The signs on the VIX Index not only show a historical similarity to the aftermath of the last crisis but also complement the bearish signs seen on...

Shyam Devani

Traditional safe havens are not responding as expected, leading to unprecedented asset moves and questioning trust in U.S. safe haven assets.