Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp as expected, but its median projection showed just 50bp of rate cuts in 2025 (down from 100bp projected in Sep'24). </li>
<li>M2 has steadily accelerated since Mar'24, rising 3.3%YoY in Oct'24. Unsurprisingly, core PCE and core CPI inflation have moved higher from their Jul'24 trough to 3.32%YoY(Nov'24) and 2.8%YoY(Oct'24) respectively. </li>
<li>No rate cuts likely in Q1CY25, as fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in Oct'23-Sep'24) keeps boosting RGDP growth and inflation. DOGE spending cuts &amp; declining Brent key to Jun'25 cut.</li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp as expected, but its median projection showed just 50bp of rate cuts in 2025 (down from 100bp projected in Sep'24). 
M2 has steadily accelerated since Mar'24, rising 3.3%YoY in Oct'24. Unsurprisingly, core PCE and core CPI inflation have moved higher from their Jul'24 trough to 3.32%YoY(Nov'24) and 2.8%YoY(Oct'24) respectively. 
No rate cuts likely in Q1CY25, as fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in Oct'23-Sep'24) keeps boosting RGDP growth and inflation. DOGE spending cuts &amp; declining Brent key to Jun'25 cut.


US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update – this week with a strong focus on the moves we are seeing in Fixed Income and forward-pricing at the moment and the subsequent positioning as we head into 2025.</li><li>Markets continue to lean bearish on the Eurozone while upbeat on the US in equity terms, and likely for good reasons as macro data hasn’t given any good arguments as to why one should be upbeat on the Eurozone, and the signs we are getting on European growth in our nowcasts have yet to show up in actual releases – for now, it’s mainly the less China sensitive countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece that are performing macro-wise while Germany, France and Italy suffer.</li><li>GDP growth is surprisingly strong in the first 3 whilst very weak in the latter 3, and given the latter’s weighting in European equity indices, it makes sense why we are seeing hedge funds being long consumer staples, health care and other defensives while scaling down bets on cyclical equities.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update – this week with a strong focus on the moves we are seeing in Fixed Income and forward-pricing at the moment and the subsequent positioning as we head into 2025.Markets continue to lean bearish on the Eurozone while upbeat on the US in equity terms, and likely for good reasons as macro data hasn’t given any good arguments as to why one should be upbeat on the Eurozone, and the signs we are getting on European growth in our nowcasts have yet to show up in actual releases – for now, it’s mainly the less China sensitive countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece that are performing macro-wise while Germany, France and Italy suffer.GDP growth is surprisingly strong in the first 3 whilst very weak in the latter 3, and given the latter’s weighting in European equity indices, it makes sense why we are seeing hedge funds being long consumer staples, health care and other defensives while scaling down bets on cyclical equities.

Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Global credit ecosystem remains stable, similar to 2024 outlook</li><li>Tight spreads and low all-in yields support demand in credit markets</li><li>Concerns about non-cash accrual companies in private credit portfolios and potential impact on risk distribution from public to private markets, but overall sentiment remains positive for credit markets.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Global credit ecosystem remains stable, similar to 2024 outlookTight spreads and low all-in yields support demand in credit marketsConcerns about non-cash accrual companies in private credit portfolios and potential impact on risk distribution from public to private markets, but overall sentiment remains positive for credit markets.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Speadbites: Food for Credit Market Thought as We Head Into the Holidays

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, friends, and welcome to my straight-to-the-point editorial on everything macro!Just as everyone had concluded that Trump and his (alleged) trade wars would be bond-unfriendly, the bond market has started performing much better—exactly as we suggested would happen following the election results.</li><li>The first major difference compared to 2016, when bonds rioted after Trump’s victory, is that Trump was the clear base case this time around.</li><li>The second major difference is that Trump’s policy mix is not inflationary this time—in fact, it’s quite the opposite.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, friends, and welcome to my straight-to-the-point editorial on everything macro!Just as everyone had concluded that Trump and his (alleged) trade wars would be bond-unfriendly, the bond market has started performing much better—exactly as we suggested would happen following the election results.The first major difference compared to 2016, when bonds rioted after Trump’s victory, is that Trump was the clear base case this time around.The second major difference is that Trump’s policy mix is not inflationary this time—in fact, it’s quite the opposite.

Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>It was a quiet day yesterday, with no major data releases given the Veterans Day holiday in the US.</li>
<li>US equities rose for the fifth straight session, albeit gains were modest, with the S&amp;P 500 inching up 0.1% to c. 6,000. The Dollar Index hovered at a one-year high.</li>
<li>Bitcoin rallied past the USD 89,000 mark, lifting the entire crypto market above its pandemic-era peak. </li>
</ul>


It was a quiet day yesterday, with no major data releases given the Veterans Day holiday in the US.
US equities rose for the fifth straight session, albeit gains were modest, with the S&amp;P 500 inching up 0.1% to c. 6,000. The Dollar Index hovered at a one-year high.
Bitcoin rallied past the USD 89,000 mark, lifting the entire crypto market above its pandemic-era peak. 


US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update – this week with a strong focus on the moves we are seeing in Fixed Income and...

Steno Research

Speadbites: Food for Credit Market Thought as We Head Into the Holidays

Market outlook for 2025 predicts continued stability with tight spreads and low default rates, demand for credit supported by low yields, concerns...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?

Happy Sunday, friends, and welcome to my straight-to-the-point editorial on everything macro!Just as everyone had concluded that Trump and his...

Steno Research

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US equities rose for the fifth straight session, albeit gains were modest, with the S&P 500 inching up 0.1% to c. 6,000. The Dollar Index hovered...

Lucror Analytics

US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

​We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update – this week with a strong focus on the moves we are seeing in Fixed Income and...

Steno Research

Speadbites: Food for Credit Market Thought as We Head Into the Holidays

Market outlook for 2025 predicts continued stability with tight spreads and low default rates, demand for credit supported by low yields, concerns...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?

Happy Sunday, friends, and welcome to my straight-to-the-point editorial on everything macro!Just as everyone had concluded that Trump and his...

Steno Research

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US equities rose for the fifth straight session, albeit gains were modest, with the S&P 500 inching up 0.1% to c. 6,000. The Dollar Index hovered...

Lucror Analytics

We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...