Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Based on the six regional Manufacturing PMIs published for the ISM Manufacturing Index, the ISM should come in at 48.1 for July.</li>
<li>Based on several leading macro indicators, including the latest Fed Lending Survey and Money Supply Growth, the scope for an increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index is limited.</li>
<li>An ISM Manufacturing Index points to 14% downside for the S&amp;P 500 Index and significantly lower bond yields.</li>
</ul>


Based on the six regional Manufacturing PMIs published for the ISM Manufacturing Index, the ISM should come in at 48.1 for July.
Based on several leading macro indicators, including the latest Fed Lending Survey and Money Supply Growth, the scope for an increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index is limited.
An ISM Manufacturing Index points to 14% downside for the S&amp;P 500 Index and significantly lower bond yields.


Expect the ISM Manufacturing to Rise to 48, Signaling 14% Downside for Equities

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting.</li>
<li>The outlook for cuts?</li>
<li>That’s properly worth a watch series on its own but with long-end rates below 4%, equity markets making YTD highs, strong corporate profitability and a labor market that still shows strength, we venture to say that those cuts are likely not around the corner.</li>
</ul>


A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting.
The outlook for cuts?
That’s properly worth a watch series on its own but with long-end rates below 4%, equity markets making YTD highs, strong corporate profitability and a labor market that still shows strength, we venture to say that those cuts are likely not around the corner.


<ul><li>Welcome to this second asset-specific piece during our “Business Cycle Week”.</li><li>Due to several of our indicators hinting at a short-term pick-up in cyclical activity (manufacturing), we take a look at every single major asset class and how it’s priced relative to the cycle outlook.</li><li>In this piece, we will look at rates/curves relative to the cyclical outlook.</li></ul>

Welcome to this second asset-specific piece during our “Business Cycle Week”.Due to several of our indicators hinting at a short-term pick-up in cyclical activity (manufacturing), we take a look at every single major asset class and how it’s priced relative to the cycle outlook.In this piece, we will look at rates/curves relative to the cyclical outlook.

Rates Watch: Will curves bear-steepen if the cyclical rebound is confirmed?

<ul>
<li>The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.</li>
<li>The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.</li>
<li>Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.</li>
</ul>


The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.</li>
<li>A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).</li>
<li>The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.</li>
</ul>


We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.
A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).
The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.


US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

Expect the ISM Manufacturing to Rise to 48, Signaling 14% Downside for Equities

The regional US Manufacturing PMIs point to an increase of the ISM Manufacturing Index to 48.1 from 46. Yet, this is insufficient to erase the...

Jeroen Blokland

Pause Watch: 25 bps and then a pause!?

A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting. The outlook for...

Steno Research

Rates Watch: Will curves bear-steepen if the cyclical rebound is confirmed?

Welcome to this second asset-specific piece during our “Business Cycle Week”. Due to several of our indicators hinting at a short-term pick-up in...

Steno Research

Markets Better Not Focus on Valuation

Valuation measures reveal pricy equities and cheaper Treasuries. A comprehensive overview of valuation across asset classes.

Jeroen Blokland

USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target...

Thomas Schroeder