Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>US 10yr Yield broke above its 4 decade downtrend at 2.70 in 2022, confirming a positive multi-year outlook and target towards 6.24 (38.2% retracement of the LT downtrend).</li>
<li>Last week's weekly close confirmed a renewal of the MT uptrend bias after a multi-month period of consolidation finally produced a definitive positive breakout above 3.57/3.64. Interim target at 3.90/3.95.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
US 10yr Yield broke above its 4 decade downtrend at 2.70 in 2022, confirming a positive multi-year outlook and target towards 6.24 (38.2% retracement of the LT downtrend).
Last week's weekly close confirmed a renewal of the MT uptrend bias after a multi-month period of consolidation finally produced a definitive positive breakout above 3.57/3.64. Interim target at 3.90/3.95.


US 10YR Yield (USGG10YR) - Weekly Close Confirms a Renewed MT Uptrend - Target 3.90/3.95

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.</li>
<li>A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.
A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.


US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.</li>
<li>A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).</li>
<li>The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.</li>
</ul>


We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.
A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).
The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.


<ul>
<li>US 10yr yield pivot support at 3.50% will determine if we reach for the 4.19% blow off projection. Macro breakout points, pullback and forward targets the focus.</li>
<li>5 wave rise is noted with retracement synergy that sets the stage for a yield pullback as deflationary forces surface in 2023.</li>
<li>Long term yield breakouts are noted for a yield retreat in 2023 ahead of higher inflation and yield projections in 2024 and a probable credit event.</li>
</ul>


US 10yr yield pivot support at 3.50% will determine if we reach for the 4.19% blow off projection. Macro breakout points, pullback and forward targets the focus.
5 wave rise is noted with retracement synergy that sets the stage for a yield pullback as deflationary forces surface in 2023.
Long term yield breakouts are noted for a yield retreat in 2023 ahead of higher inflation and yield projections in 2024 and a probable credit event.


US Yield Tactical Tops and Forward Higher Yield Trajectory

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US Treasuries may still be on the way up [in price]</li>
<li>The most interesting development is the fall in the Oil price as WTI takes out key levels</li>
<li>The price action on yields is so far no different to a month ago from where yields started to fall again after a strong NFP number. Equities may also benefit</li>
</ul>


US Treasuries may still be on the way up [in price]
The most interesting development is the fall in the Oil price as WTI takes out key levels
The price action on yields is so far no different to a month ago from where yields started to fall again after a strong NFP number. Equities may also benefit


US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

US 10YR Yield (USGG10YR) - Weekly Close Confirms a Renewed MT Uptrend - Target 3.90/3.95

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target...

Thomas Schroeder

US Yield Tactical Tops and Forward Higher Yield Trajectory

US 10yr yield pivot support at 3.50% will determine if we reach for the 4.19% blow off projection. Macro breakout points, pullback and forward...

Thomas Schroeder

US Treasuries & Post NFP Thoughts

The fall in the Oil price is arguably more important than the NFP numbers. Should it continue, a move down on US 10 year yields would not be...

Shyam Devani