External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate bearish USD position widened a meaningful $3.7bn w/w to $15.9bn, pushing back toward the extended bearish levels observed in late April and early May.</li><li>The renewed deterioration in USD sentiment reflected market participants’ positioning in the aftermath of the payrolls disappointment but did not capture the CPI disappointment released after the June 10 reporting date.</li><li>The w/w deterioration was driven by positive adjustments to the EUR, GBP, and CAD positions, along with a modestly positive adjustment for CHF as well.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate bearish USD position widened a meaningful $3.7bn w/w to $15.9bn, pushing back toward the extended bearish levels observed in late April and early May.The renewed deterioration in USD sentiment reflected market participants’ positioning in the aftermath of the payrolls disappointment but did not capture the CPI disappointment released after the June 10 reporting date.The w/w deterioration was driven by positive adjustments to the EUR, GBP, and CAD positions, along with a modestly positive adjustment for CHF as well.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Overtakes JPY as Largest Held Net Long; CAD Short Narrows

<ul><li>The CAD is trading at its best level against the USD since last October and looks to be closing rapidly on the late-2024 low for spot around 1.34 that held just prior to the start of the USD’s rapid move up to its peak just under 1.48 in February.</li><li>The weak USD undertone explains much of the CAD’s recent improvement.</li><li>The soft USD trend reflects the erosion in “US exceptionalism” rooted in the softer US growth outlook and the relative underperformance in US risk assets this year amid tariff headwinds, investor concerns about weak US fiscal policy and, as a result of these factors, a reappraisal of investor exposure to the USD and USD-denominated assets.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is trading at its best level against the USD since last October and looks to be closing rapidly on the late-2024 low for spot around 1.34 that held just prior to the start of the USD’s rapid move up to its peak just under 1.48 in February.The weak USD undertone explains much of the CAD’s recent improvement.The soft USD trend reflects the erosion in “US exceptionalism” rooted in the softer US growth outlook and the relative underperformance in US risk assets this year amid tariff headwinds, investor concerns about weak US fiscal policy and, as a result of these factors, a reappraisal of investor exposure to the USD and USD-denominated assets.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - CAD Gets a Modest Tailwind from Commodities

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of FX positioning reflects only a moderate deterioration in NonCommercial (speculative) USD sentiment in the week through May 27th.</li><li>Data for the major currencies shows a USD900mn increase in aggregate net USD shorts in the week, driving the overall speculative USD short slightly higher for the first time since the start of the May month after a period of consolidation in speculative shorting activity.</li><li>Additional data is mixed. Real Money (institutional) investors added some USD2bn to their already substantial (USD42.3bn) net USD short while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders continue to sit on their hands in essence, flipping from minor net aggregate USD shorts to (as in this week) small net USD longs (USD1.3bn).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of FX positioning reflects only a moderate deterioration in NonCommercial (speculative) USD sentiment in the week through May 27th.Data for the major currencies shows a USD900mn increase in aggregate net USD shorts in the week, driving the overall speculative USD short slightly higher for the first time since the start of the May month after a period of consolidation in speculative shorting activity.Additional data is mixed. Real Money (institutional) investors added some USD2bn to their already substantial (USD42.3bn) net USD short while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders continue to sit on their hands in essence, flipping from minor net aggregate USD shorts to (as in this week) small net USD longs (USD1.3bn).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish CAD Sentiment Persists

<ul><li>The solid stock market rebound form the low reached following the revelation of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2nd appears to reflect a strengthening view that the president’s tariff bark is worse than his bite.</li><li>The deployment of harsh and aggressive tariffs on the US’s trade partners have been subject to frequent, and often relatively swift, delays or changes, with latest example being the president’s threat of 50% tariffs on EU imports as of June 1 being delayed until July 9th—when the 90-day reprieve for hefty reciprocal tariffs initially announced on April 9th expires.</li><li>An op-ed by White House trade advisor Navarro today claims that markets are missing a key aspect of the president’s tax bill, namely that a “modest” global tariff of 10% would generate some USD2.3-3.3tn in revenues over the next 10 years which would help finance planned tax cuts</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The solid stock market rebound form the low reached following the revelation of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2nd appears to reflect a strengthening view that the president’s tariff bark is worse than his bite.The deployment of harsh and aggressive tariffs on the US’s trade partners have been subject to frequent, and often relatively swift, delays or changes, with latest example being the president’s threat of 50% tariffs on EU imports as of June 1 being delayed until July 9th—when the 90-day reprieve for hefty reciprocal tariffs initially announced on April 9th expires.An op-ed by White House trade advisor Navarro today claims that markets are missing a key aspect of the president’s tax bill, namely that a “modest” global tariff of 10% would generate some USD2.3-3.3tn in revenues over the next 10 years which would help finance planned tax cutsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Sentiment Moderates, Outlook Still Bearish

<ul><li>Broader dollar bearishness moderated again through late May, according to the latest snapshot of market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC data.</li><li>IMM-based Non-Commercial (speculative) traders cut net USD shorts by a sizeable USD4.2bn on aggregate in the week through May 20th, extending the USD short-covering trend seen in the prior week’s data.</li><li>Net speculative USD shorts were pinned back to USD12.3bn. Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) accounts paring their significant net USD shorts by USD1.5bn while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cut modest USD shorts in half to just USD1.8bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Broader dollar bearishness moderated again through late May, according to the latest snapshot of market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC data.IMM-based Non-Commercial (speculative) traders cut net USD shorts by a sizeable USD4.2bn on aggregate in the week through May 20th, extending the USD short-covering trend seen in the prior week’s data.Net speculative USD shorts were pinned back to USD12.3bn. Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) accounts paring their significant net USD shorts by USD1.5bn while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cut modest USD shorts in half to just USD1.8bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish CAD Sentiment Rises Sharply

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Overtakes JPY as Largest Held Net Long; CAD Short Narrows

The aggregate bearish USD position widened a meaningful $3.7bn w/w to $15.9bn, pushing back toward the extended bearish levels observed in late...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - CAD Gets a Modest Tailwind from Commodities

The soft USD trend reflects the erosion in “US exceptionalism” rooted in the softer US growth outlook and the relative underperformance in US risk...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish CAD Sentiment Persists

The latest snapshot of FX positioning reflects only a moderate deterioration in NonCommercial (speculative) USD sentiment in the week through May...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Sentiment Moderates, Outlook Still Bearish

The USD has stabilized in the wake of the president’s latest tariff walk back but broader sentiment indicators still reflect a deep-set dollar...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish CAD Sentiment Rises Sharply

Broader dollar bearishness moderated again through late May, according to the latest snapshot of market sentiment, reflected in the CFTC data.

Scotiabank

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