External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Firm US yields, still supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provide solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the early stages of 2025.</li><li>Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024.</li><li>The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate very closely for much of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Firm US yields, still supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provide solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the early stages of 2025.Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024.The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate very closely for much of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Bullish Narrative Persists but Positioning Is Crowded

<ul><li>USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.</li><li>Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

<ul><li>Firm US yields, supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provided solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the New Year.</li><li>Or so I—and many market participants—thought.</li><li>I had noted a significant USD overvaluation relative to its estimated equilibrium measure in my updates late last week.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Firm US yields, supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provided solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the New Year.Or so I—and many market participants—thought.I had noted a significant USD overvaluation relative to its estimated equilibrium measure in my updates late last week.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - A Needle Scratch in the USD-Positive Narrative

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through December 10 reflects a small improvement in overall USD bullish sentiment.</li><li>Aggregate net Non-Commercial USD longs versus the major currencies we cover in this report rose USD1.5bn to USD24.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cut their small net USD long from the prior week back to zero while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders boosted net USD longs by about USD2bn to USD10.5bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through December 10 reflects a small improvement in overall USD bullish sentiment.Aggregate net Non-Commercial USD longs versus the major currencies we cover in this report rose USD1.5bn to USD24.3bn.Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cut their small net USD long from the prior week back to zero while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders boosted net USD longs by about USD2bn to USD10.5bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Data - USD Bull Sentiment Strengthens

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of FX sentiment from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data shows little change in USD positioning overall through early December, with traders perhaps lacking the motivation to adjust exposures after the Thanksgiving break.</li><li>Aggregate long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts fell USD498mn over the week to USD22.8bn—after holding steady at USD23.3bn over the prior two weeks.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding about USD1.5bn to net long USD positions, taking exposure up to USD8.5bn, while Institutional (real money) traders doubled net long USDs to USD3bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data shows little change in USD positioning overall through early December, with traders perhaps lacking the motivation to adjust exposures after the Thanksgiving break.Aggregate long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts fell USD498mn over the week to USD22.8bn—after holding steady at USD23.3bn over the prior two weeks.Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding about USD1.5bn to net long USD positions, taking exposure up to USD8.5bn, while Institutional (real money) traders doubled net long USDs to USD3bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment/Positioning Stable

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

FX Snapshot - USD Bullish Narrative Persists but Positioning Is Crowded

Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024. The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

Combined net long USD positioning rose to just over USD59bn, the highest since May 2019. USD positioning/sentiment continues to look extended.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - A Needle Scratch in the USD-Positive Narrative

Firm US yields, supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provided solid support for the...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Data - USD Bull Sentiment Strengthens

Speculative traders moved in different directions on the major currencies. They boosted net JPY longs USD1.9bn and lifted net GBP longs by USD634mn.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment/Positioning Stable

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data shows little change in USD positioning overall through early December

Scotiabank

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