Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policies</li><li>Possibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in Euro</li><li>Recommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movement</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policiesPossibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in EuroRecommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movementThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.</li><li>That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.</li><li>This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, everyone! If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true.That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon this tremendous meme of the business cycle and how JPoww and his ilk respond to it.This has been the Fed’s operating model for a while: exaggerating the business cycle in both directions.

Steno Signals #126 – Where did all the liquidity go?

<ul><li>Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends.</li><li>Over recent months, we’ve dedicated substantial time to upgrading our models and refining the data we use.</li><li>But the core question remains: how do we interpret the complexities of the macro environment, and how can these insights inform financial market strategies?</li></ul>

Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends.Over recent months, we’ve dedicated substantial time to upgrading our models and refining the data we use.But the core question remains: how do we interpret the complexities of the macro environment, and how can these insights inform financial market strategies?

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

<ul><li>Following another reasonably hot U.S. CPI report yesterday, it’s time to dust off the old sell-side charlatan chart comparing today’s inflation to the 1970s.</li><li>Honestly, I find this comparison absurd in many ways, as the drivers of inflation are different now.</li><li>Still, there is an interesting resemblance, which got me thinking…Inflation in the U.S. is trending around 3-3.5%, and the Fed has made no progress over the past 3-4 months toward the 2% target.</li></ul>

Following another reasonably hot U.S. CPI report yesterday, it’s time to dust off the old sell-side charlatan chart comparing today’s inflation to the 1970s.Honestly, I find this comparison absurd in many ways, as the drivers of inflation are different now.Still, there is an interesting resemblance, which got me thinking…Inflation in the U.S. is trending around 3-3.5%, and the Fed has made no progress over the past 3-4 months toward the 2% target.

Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We’re at a critical juncture in sovereign bond markets, with liquidity running razor-thin and the game changing fast.</li><li>German Bunds, traditionally rock-solid, are now trading through swaps and nearing zero on cross-currency swaps (ESTRON/SOFR) – a first in modern market history.</li><li>The takeaway? Major central banks, especially the ECB, are pressing too hard on QT, and the markets are about to hit back hard if they don’t ease up soon.</li></ul>

We’re at a critical juncture in sovereign bond markets, with liquidity running razor-thin and the game changing fast.German Bunds, traditionally rock-solid, are now trading through swaps and nearing zero on cross-currency swaps (ESTRON/SOFR) – a first in modern market history.The takeaway? Major central banks, especially the ECB, are pressing too hard on QT, and the markets are about to hit back hard if they don’t ease up soon.

Steno Signals #126: Disentangling the ECB Schnabel Speech – How Will QT Develop from Here?

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

The Euro and CNY saw significant movements this week, with the PBOC setting a line in the sand for the CNY, leading to a potential shift in the...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #126 – Where did all the liquidity go?

Happy Sunday, everyone!If you can’t show it in a meme, then it’s not true. That’s my modus operandi in the research business, and I stumbled upon...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends. Over recent...

Steno Research

Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target

Following another reasonably hot U.S. CPI report yesterday, it’s time to dust off the old sell-side charlatan chart comparing today’s inflation to...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #126: Disentangling the ECB Schnabel Speech – How Will QT Develop from Here?

We’re at a critical juncture in sovereign bond markets, with liquidity running razor-thin and the game changing fast. German Bunds, traditionally...

Steno Research

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