Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.</li><li>The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.</li><li>Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

<ul>
<li>Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond</li>
<li>Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar</li>
<li>Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected</li>
<li>Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future</li>
<li>Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A divided FOMC cut by 25bp as expected, but Powell signalled Dec'25 cut was far from a foregone conclusion; instead the FOMC was strongly committed to returning to 2% inflation. </li>
<li>US$88.8bn decline in base money (Mar-Aug'25) has held M2 and inflation in check. The end of QT from Dec'25 will be a form of easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26. </li>
<li>FOMC voting shows doves isolated, and Powell-led FOMC will stay hawkish until Jan'26, especially amid fogginess on inflation data. The next rate cut is unlikely until Mar'26. </li>
</ul>


A divided FOMC cut by 25bp as expected, but Powell signalled Dec'25 cut was far from a foregone conclusion; instead the FOMC was strongly committed to returning to 2% inflation. 
US$88.8bn decline in base money (Mar-Aug'25) has held M2 and inflation in check. The end of QT from Dec'25 will be a form of easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26. 
FOMC voting shows doves isolated, and Powell-led FOMC will stay hawkish until Jan'26, especially amid fogginess on inflation data. The next rate cut is unlikely until Mar'26. 


US: No More Rate Cuts Likely from the Powell Fed; More Dovish FOMC by Q2 2026

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

<ul><li>April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.</li><li>Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.</li><li>Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession</li></ul>

April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
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USD (USD CURNCY)

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

Repo markets remained stable at year end, with significant increases in Treasury sponsor repo balances and FICC sponsored repo usage, while the...

At Any Rate

Global FX: No calm before the storm

Overall, the update highlights various factors impacting market trends and currency movements, including resilience in survey data in Oregon,...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

Overall, the BOE and Fed's monetary policy decisions, potential government shutdown, debt ceiling concerns, and Fed's balance sheet shifts are key...

At Any Rate

US: No More Rate Cuts Likely from the Powell Fed; More Dovish FOMC by Q2 2026

FOMC cut by 25bp, but wants to bring inflation back to 2% target. No-QT amounts to easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26, with next cut...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

This report presents a contrarian view to the doom and gloom view of the global economy as trade tensions escalate between the US and China

Kok Peng Chan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

Repo markets remained stable at year end, with significant increases in Treasury sponsor repo balances and FICC sponsored repo usage, while the...

At Any Rate

Global FX: No calm before the storm

Overall, the update highlights various factors impacting market trends and currency movements, including resilience in survey data in Oregon,...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

Overall, the BOE and Fed's monetary policy decisions, potential government shutdown, debt ceiling concerns, and Fed's balance sheet shifts are key...

At Any Rate

US: No More Rate Cuts Likely from the Powell Fed; More Dovish FOMC by Q2 2026

​FOMC cut by 25bp, but wants to bring inflation back to 2% target. No-QT amounts to easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26, with next cut...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

This report presents a contrarian view to the doom and gloom view of the global economy as trade tensions escalate between the US and China

Kok Peng Chan

FOMC cut by 25bp, but wants to bring inflation back to 2% target. No-QT amounts to easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26, with next cut...