Commodities Trading - Credit Risk

Alan Chong

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Commodities

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring prices on pollution curbs. This is one commodity that has defied the descending trend of other commodities recently such as Gold, Copper and Crude Oil.  The question is whether iron ore price momentum will continue into the second half of 2018. We track the benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content (which is the industry standard specification assessed by Platts, Metal Bulletin &amp; The Steel Index) and expect iron ore prices to average USD55-60/ton for 2018.

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring prices on pollution curbs. This is one commodity that has defied the descending trend of other commodities recently such as Gold, Copper and Crude Oil.  The question is whether iron ore price momentum will continue into the second half of 2018. We track the benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content (which is the industry standard specification assessed by Platts, Metal Bulletin &amp; The Steel Index) and expect iron ore prices to average USD55-60/ton for 2018.

Commodity Critic: Where Is the Iron Ore Price Heading?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight starts with a bit of history. It is entirely extraneous to the data, but I think the history is kind of fun. If you want to get right to the data, go to the Thin Red Line.<hr>In 1744, an announcement appeared in the Daily Post that the Virginia and Maryland coffee house in Threadneedle Street, London (just east of the Bank of England) had changed its name to Virginia and Baltick Coffee House.<blockquote>This is to give notice that the house, late the Maryland Coffee House in Threadneedle Street…</blockquote>

This insight starts with a bit of history. It is entirely extraneous to the data, but I think the history is kind of fun. If you want to get right to the data, go to the Thin Red Line.In 1744, an announcement appeared in the Daily Post that the Virginia and Maryland coffee house in Threadneedle Street, London (just east of the Bank of England) had changed its name to Virginia and Baltick Coffee House.This is to give notice that the house, late the Maryland Coffee House in Threadneedle Street…

Baltic Dry - It's That Time of Year. Again. [2018 Version]

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.</li></ul>

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

<div class="content-highlight">1.  Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over Catalonia's government and police force this declaration is no real surprise.  Catalonia cannot force through independence, therefore we just see uncertainty growing for the Spanish economy.  We are growing more and more concerned about certain governments in Europe and the EU's support.  There is a clear difference in the way the UK has dealt with the issue…</div>

1.  Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over Catalonia's government and police force this declaration is no real surprise.  Catalonia cannot force through independence, therefore we just see uncertainty growing for the Spanish economy.  We are growing more and more concerned about certain governments in Europe and the EU's support.  There is a clear difference in the way the UK has dealt with the issue…

Brazil

Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in metals and mining. The company is one of the world's largest producers of iron ore and nickel, also extracting copper, manganese, and ferroalloys, along with operating extensive logistics infrastructure. Vale S.A. was founded on June 1, 1942, and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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Vale (VALE US)

Commodity Critic: Where Is the Iron Ore Price Heading?

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring...

Bondcritic

Baltic Dry - It's That Time of Year. Again. [2018 Version]

This insight starts with a bit of history. It is entirely extraneous to the data, but I think the history is kind of fun. If you want to get right...

Travis Lundy

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past...

Vermilion Research

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

21 Things Worth Knowing Today (Issue 2)

1. Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over...

Mark Artherton

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