Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.</li>
<li>Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.</li>
<li>Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.</li>
</ul>


Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.
Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.
Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.


Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.</li>
<li>While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.</li>
<li>The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.</li>
</ul>


Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.
While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.
The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

CNGR Advanced Material / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cngr-advanced-material-co-ltd-47ff2856-4dc1-492a-8394-03d69de02ce4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45994:1" rel="noopener">CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK)</a>'s IPO price was fixed at the low end at HK$34.00. However, valuation is inexpensive, and initial price weakness is a long-term opportunity.</li>
<li>Three groups of close peers, including nickel-related companies, mining companies, and lithium/battery companies, trade on average FY26F PER of 21x, vs. CNGR's 12.5x.</li>
<li>By parking it with the steepest HA discount of its peers (26.2%), CNGR will be valued at HK$40.07, as its IPO price implies a massive 37.4% discount.</li>
</ul>



CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK)'s IPO price was fixed at the low end at HK$34.00. However, valuation is inexpensive, and initial price weakness is a long-term opportunity.
Three groups of close peers, including nickel-related companies, mining companies, and lithium/battery companies, trade on average FY26F PER of 21x, vs. CNGR's 12.5x.
By parking it with the steepest HA discount of its peers (26.2%), CNGR will be valued at HK$40.07, as its IPO price implies a massive 37.4% discount.


CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK): Opportunity Is Out There

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Brazil

Vale SA produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

Price Gauge
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Vale SA (6210 HK)

Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Vale trims iron ore output, doubles down on decarbonized steel trends, and advances a Sudbury copper partnership as supply tightens.

Mint Finance

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Vale: A valuation paradox

Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...

Rahul Jain

CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK): Opportunity Is Out There

CNGR Advanced Material's IPO price fixed at low end due to lukewarm response, but valuation seen as inexpensive compared to close peers in nickel,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Vale trims iron ore output, doubles down on decarbonized steel trends, and advances a Sudbury copper partnership as supply tightens.

Mint Finance

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Vale: A valuation paradox

​Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...

Rahul Jain

CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK): Opportunity Is Out There

​CNGR Advanced Material's IPO price fixed at low end due to lukewarm response, but valuation seen as inexpensive compared to close peers in nickel,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...

CNGR Advanced Material's IPO price fixed at low end due to lukewarm response, but valuation seen as inexpensive compared to close peers in nickel,...