Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.</li>
<li>There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.
There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore miners lift output guidance, signalling confidence despite China’s property slump and slowing steel demand.</li>
<li>India emerges as a critical growth driver yet cannot offset China’s structural steel demand weakness.</li>
<li>Rising supply from Simandou and peers heightens downside risk, keeping the iron ore outlook cautiously bearish.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore miners lift output guidance, signalling confidence despite China’s property slump and slowing steel demand.
India emerges as a critical growth driver yet cannot offset China’s structural steel demand weakness.
Rising supply from Simandou and peers heightens downside risk, keeping the iron ore outlook cautiously bearish.


Iron Ore Giants Stay Bullish on India, China Demand Wobbles

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Timing:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue (FMG AU)</a> is scheduled to report its FY2025 full-year results on Tuesday, 26 August 2025.</li>
<li>
Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move and the upcoming dividend. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Get the expected move, the dividend outlook, and a clear view of the post-event volatility term structure to be ready for results day.</li>
</ul>



Timing:Fortescue (FMG AU) is scheduled to report its FY2025 full-year results on Tuesday, 26 August 2025.

Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move and the upcoming dividend. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.

Why Read: Get the expected move, the dividend outlook, and a clear view of the post-event volatility term structure to be ready for results day.


Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto's</a> share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.</li>
<li>This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.</li>
</ul>



Context:Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.

Rio Tinto's share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.
This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Vale (VALE US)

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 217 adds/224 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.3bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

Iron Ore Giants Stay Bullish on India, China Demand Wobbles

Iron ore giants stay bullish on output, betting India’s steel boom offsets China’s slowdown, property drag, and mounting protectionist headwinds.

Mint Finance

Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

Fortescue (FMG AU) to report FY2025 results on 26 August 2025. Options market anticipates price move, dividend outlook, and post-event volatility....

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 217 adds/224 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.3bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

Iron Ore Giants Stay Bullish on India, China Demand Wobbles

Iron ore giants stay bullish on output, betting India’s steel boom offsets China’s slowdown, property drag, and mounting protectionist headwinds.

Mint Finance

Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

​Fortescue (FMG AU) to report FY2025 results on 26 August 2025. Options market anticipates price move, dividend outlook, and post-event volatility....

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

​Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

Fortescue (FMG AU) to report FY2025 results on 26 August 2025. Options market anticipates price move, dividend outlook, and post-event volatility....

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.