Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US crude inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week by 3.4 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. Gasoline stocks also decreased by 3.7 mb.</li>
<li>As of the week ending 26/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 15.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>European oil majors beat Q2 profit estimates. BP’s Q2 underlying net profit beat estimates by 7.7%. Shell’s Q2 EPS beat estimates by 5.1%. </li>
</ul>


US crude inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week by 3.4 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. Gasoline stocks also decreased by 3.7 mb.
As of the week ending 26/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 15.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
European oil majors beat Q2 profit estimates. BP’s Q2 underlying net profit beat estimates by 7.7%. Shell’s Q2 EPS beat estimates by 5.1%. 


[ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").</li>
<li>Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.</li>
<li>This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.</li>
</ul>


This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").
Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.
This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.


Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).</li>
<li>As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).</li>
</ul>


We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).


Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.</li><li>Microsoft’s declaration in January 2023 that AI would emerge as the next computing platform coupled with Nvidia’s shocking earnings guide up last quarter, coupled with a weaker dollar and decline in bond yields, provided fuel in the first half of the year for the technology sector and garnered investor eyeballs to anything closely associated with AI.</li><li>However, on Microsoft’s most recent earnings call on July 25th, CFO Amy Hood stated “Even with strong demand and a leadership position, growth from our AI services will be gradual as Azure AI scales and our copilots reach general availability dates. So for FY '24, the impact will be weighted towards H2.”</li></ul>

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.Microsoft’s declaration in January 2023 that AI would emerge as the next computing platform coupled with Nvidia’s shocking earnings guide up last quarter, coupled with a weaker dollar and decline in bond yields, provided fuel in the first half of the year for the technology sector and garnered investor eyeballs to anything closely associated with AI.However, on Microsoft’s most recent earnings call on July 25th, CFO Amy Hood stated “Even with strong demand and a leadership position, growth from our AI services will be gradual as Azure AI scales and our copilots reach general availability dates. So for FY '24, the impact will be weighted towards H2.”

United States

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Valero Energy (VLO US)

[ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations

US crude inventories and gasoline stocks continue to decline, while US natural gas inventories are up YoY. European oil majors surpass Q2 profit...

Mint Finance

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials/Manufacturing $XLI to market weight. Still see low probability of a meaningful correction if the $SPX is above 4300-4325....

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/14

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations

​US crude inventories and gasoline stocks continue to decline, while US natural gas inventories are up YoY. European oil majors surpass Q2 profit...

Mint Finance

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials/Manufacturing $XLI to market weight. Still see low probability of a meaningful correction if the $SPX is above 4300-4325....

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/14

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

US crude inventories and gasoline stocks continue to decline, while US natural gas inventories are up YoY. European oil majors surpass Q2 profit...